[
 {"id":"C1","text":"The seasonal AR model has lower out-of-sample RMSE than seasonal-naive at h = 1, 2 and 4 (relative improvements 0.231, 0.136, 0.188).","results_keys":["rmse_snaive_h1","rmse_model_h1","rmse_snaive_h2","rmse_model_h2","rmse_snaive_h4","rmse_model_h4","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h2","rel_improvement_rmse_h4"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates over 40 origins; no significance test at h=1,2."},
 {"id":"C2","text":"The seasonal AR model also has lower MAE than seasonal-naive at all three horizons.","results_keys":["mae_snaive_h1","mae_model_h1","mae_snaive_h2","mae_model_h2","mae_snaive_h4","mae_model_h4"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates only."},
 {"id":"C3","text":"At h = 4 the mean squared-error loss differential (2.83) is not statistically distinguishable from zero with a Bartlett HAC SE at lag 3 (DM = 1.36, p = 0.174).","results_keys":["loss_diff_mean_h4","loss_diff_se_h4","hac_lags_h4","hac_kernel_h4","dm_stat_h4","dm_pvalue_h4"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Conclusion is sensitive to HAC lag/kernel (supp_dm_se_sensitivity_h4); small-sample normal approximation."},
 {"id":"C4","text":"The h = 4 DM standard error is sensitive to the HAC truncation lag and kernel.","results_keys":["supp_dm_se_sensitivity_h4","supp_hln_pvalue_h4"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Supplementary analysis; the pre-specified lag 3 result is the headline."}
]