- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: data audit clean; only 1995Q1 NaN dropped. Model decision: direct seasonal-dummy AR(p), p∈0..4 by BIC per origin/horizon.
- 2026-10-30 P2 passed: snaive baseline computed (RMSE h1/h2/h4 ≈ 2.85/2.85/2.88).
- 2026-10-30 P3 passed: analysis.py implemented; primary HAC = Bartlett L=4 (chosen a priori, ≥ h−1), normal p-value; sensitivities stored.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: determinism and consistency checks all pass.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report and claims written. Task complete.