# Verification checks (P4)
| # | check | outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clean re-run (deleted results.json, forecasts.csv; re-ran analysis.py): byte-identical outputs | PASS |
| 2 | forecasts.csv has 240 rows, 40 per (model, horizon) | PASS |
| 3 | target_date = origin_date + h quarters for every row | PASS |
| 4 | `actual` equals infl_annualised of target quarter (tol 1e-6) | PASS |
| 5 | snaive forecast equals infl_annualised of target − 4 quarters (≤ origin) | PASS |
| 6 | Leakage test: added +50 to all quarters after 2020Q3 in a temp copy; forecasts at origins ≤ 2020Q3 unchanged | PASS |
| 7 | rel_improvement = 1 − rmse_model/rmse_snaive (all h) | PASS |
| 8 | RMSE ≥ MAE for every model/horizon | PASS |
| 9 | loss_diff_mean_h4 = rmse_snaive_h4² − rmse_model_h4² | PASS |
| 10 | dm_stat_h4 = loss_diff_mean_h4 / loss_diff_se_h4; SE > 0 | PASS |
| 11 | hac_lags_h4 = 3 ≥ h−1 = 3 | PASS |
| 12 | Exclusion ledger: 127 − 1 − 4 = 122 = n_analysed | PASS |
| 13 | first_origin 2015-10-01 < last_origin 2025-07-01; n_origins 40 | PASS |
| 14 | Magnitudes: snaive RMSE ≈ 2.85–2.88 pp vs target sd 2.39 over full sample (surge period inflates errors) — plausible | PASS |