- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: data clean, 1 exclusion (1995Q1).
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: snaive baseline + ar_seas_aic in analysis.py (HAC Bartlett L=3 pre-specified).
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: reproducible, checks.md all pass; gate run 1 (P5 files missing, expected).
- 2026-10-30 P5: report and claims written; running final gate.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: final gate PASSED (receipt 20261030T042552.832684Z).