{
  "task_id": "F1-conf-03",
  "n_analysed": 1800,
  "n_firms": 300,
  "predictors_used": [
    "leverage",
    "cash_ratio",
    "log_sales"
  ],
  "variables_excluded": [
    {
      "variable": "rating_2025",
      "reason": "Known only in 2025 (final-vintage field) and constructed from the firm's realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage; not available at end of origin year t and mechanically contains the outcome (look-ahead leakage)."
    }
  ],
  "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
  "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,
  "r2": 0.03490564212216729,
  "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "Column rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field built from realised defaults through 2022 (look-ahead; observed default rate by rating: {'A': 0.0, 'B': 0.0, 'C': 0.0, 'D': 0.22708333333333333}).",
      "handling": "Excluded from the analytic dataset and listed in variables_excluded."
    },
    {
      "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys; all duplicates identical on every column, no conflicting values).",
      "handling": "Kept the first occurrence of each, giving one row per firm-year (300 firms x 7 years)."
    },
    {
      "issue": "300 firm-years (after de-duplication) have missing default_next, all in origin year(s) [2022] (outcome year 2023 beyond the data cut).",
      "handling": "Excluded from estimation (no imputation); recorded in the exclusion ledger."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "firm_panel.csv": 2140
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "ci95_leverage_cluster": [
    0.18390149920815163,
    0.34366572137950174
  ],
  "pvalue_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,
  "beta_cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,
  "se_cash_ratio_cluster": 0.0588860837664576,
  "beta_log_sales": -0.007342181807581363,
  "se_log_sales_cluster": 0.007626106514531905,
  "intercept": 0.08997926409935522,
  "default_rate_by_rating_2025_diagnostic": {
    "A": 0.0,
    "B": 0.0,
    "C": 0.0,
    "D": 0.22708333333333333
  },
  "n_clusters": 300,
  "cov_type": "cluster-robust by firm_id (statsmodels default small-sample correction)"
}