{
  "task_id": "F1-conf-03",
  "n_analysed": 1800,
  "n_firms": 300,
  "predictors_used": [
    "leverage",
    "cash_ratio",
    "log_sales"
  ],
  "variables_excluded": [
    {
      "variable": "rating_2025",
      "reason": "known only in 2025; built from realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage, so it leaks future outcomes (violates end-of-year-t availability)"
    },
    {
      "variable": "default_next",
      "reason": "outcome variable (known end of t+1); used as dependent variable, not predictor"
    },
    {
      "variable": "firm_id",
      "reason": "identifier; used only for clustering"
    },
    {
      "variable": "year",
      "reason": "origin-year index; not in specified model"
    }
  ],
  "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
  "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,
  "r2": 0.03490564212216729,
  "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (same firm_id-year, all fields identical)",
      "handling": "removed, keeping one copy per firm-year"
    },
    {
      "issue": "300 firm-years with missing default_next (origin years [2022]; outcome year 2023 beyond data cut)",
      "handling": "excluded from estimation; not imputed"
    },
    {
      "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field derived from realised defaults through 2022 and average sample leverage",
      "handling": "excluded from analytic dataset and model (information rule)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "default is not absorbing: 56 firms have default_next=1 in more than one year",
      "handling": "kept as given (default treated as a repeatable annual event); noted as limitation"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "firm_panel.csv": 2140
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "_extra": {
    "coef": {
      "const": 0.08997926409935522,
      "leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
      "cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,
      "log_sales": -0.007342181807581363
    },
    "se_cluster": {
      "const": 0.04351602070943679,
      "leverage": 0.0407569280434615,
      "cash_ratio": 0.0588860837664576,
      "log_sales": 0.007626106514531905
    },
    "ci95_leverage": [
      0.18390149920815163,
      0.34366572137950174
    ],
    "p_leverage": 9.663918872288981e-11,
    "cov_type": "cluster by firm_id (statsmodels default small-sample correction)"
  }
}