[
 {"id":"C1","text":"Leverage at end of year t is positively associated with default in t+1: b1 = 0.264 (about 2.6 pp per 0.10 leverage), conditional on cash ratio and log sales.","results_keys":["beta_leverage"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Association in simulated data from a linear probability model; not causal."},
 {"id":"C2","text":"The association is statistically distinguishable from zero: firm-clustered SE 0.041, 95% CI [0.184, 0.344].","results_keys":["se_leverage_cluster","beta_leverage"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Covers sampling uncertainty only, not misspecification."},
 {"id":"C3","text":"The analytic dataset uses only information known at the end of year t; rating_2025 (a 2025 field built from realised defaults) is excluded.","results_keys":["predictors_used","variables_excluded"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Relies on the codebook's statement of when each variable becomes known."},
 {"id":"C4","text":"The estimation sample is 1,800 firm-years from 300 firms, after removing 40 exact duplicate rows and 300 firm-years (origin 2022) with unobserved outcomes.","results_keys":["n_analysed","n_firms","n_input_rows","data_issues"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Default treated as non-absorbing, as given in the data."},
 {"id":"C5","text":"The baseline next-year default rate is 12.1% and the model explains little variance (R² = 0.035).","results_keys":["default_rate","r2"],"status":"supported","caveat":""}
]