{
  "task_id": "F1-conf-03",
  "n_analysed": 1800,
  "n_firms": 300,
  "predictors_used": [
    "leverage",
    "cash_ratio",
    "log_sales"
  ],
  "variables_excluded": [
    {
      "variable": "rating_2025",
      "reason": "Known only in 2025; built from realised default history through 2022 and sample-average leverage (look-ahead leakage); violates information-availability rule."
    },
    {
      "variable": "default_next",
      "reason": "Outcome (dependent variable), known only at end of t+1; not a predictor."
    },
    {
      "variable": "firm_id",
      "reason": "Identifier; used only for clustering standard errors, not as a regressor."
    },
    {
      "variable": "year",
      "reason": "Origin-year identifier; not part of the specified model."
    }
  ],
  "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
  "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,
  "r2": 0.03490564212216729,
  "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field built from realised defaults through 2022 and average sample leverage: it violates the information-availability rule.",
      "handling": "Column dropped from the analytic dataset; listed in variables_excluded; never used."
    },
    {
      "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (same firm_id-year, all fields identical); input has 2140 rows vs 2100 intended (300 firms x 7 years).",
      "handling": "Kept first occurrence, dropped the copies (ledger step 2)."
    },
    {
      "issue": "default_next missing (right-censored at the end-2022 data cut) for origin years [2022].",
      "handling": "Firm-years excluded from estimation (ledger step 3); no imputation."
    },
    {
      "issue": "leverage has a mass point at its minimum value 0.02 (54 analysed firm-years), suggesting a floor/clipping in the source.",
      "handling": "Kept as recorded; noted as a limitation (no correction applied)."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "firm_panel.csv": 2140
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "supp_ci95_leverage_cluster": [
    0.18390149920815163,
    0.34366572137950174
  ],
  "supp_pvalue_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,
  "supp_se_leverage_hc1": 0.03744708748506851,
  "supp_coefficients": {
    "const": 0.08997926409935522,
    "leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
    "cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,
    "log_sales": -0.007342181807581363
  },
  "supp_se_cluster": {
    "const": 0.04351602070943679,
    "leverage": 0.0407569280434615,
    "cash_ratio": 0.0588860837664576,
    "log_sales": 0.007626106514531905
  },
  "supp_n_clusters": 300,
  "supp_years_analysed": [
    2016,
    2021
  ],
  "supp_n_exact_duplicates": 40,
  "supp_n_key_duplicates": 40
}