{
  "task_id": "F1-conf-03",
  "n_analysed": 1800,
  "n_firms": 300,
  "predictors_used": [
    "leverage",
    "cash_ratio",
    "log_sales"
  ],
  "variables_excluded": [
    {
      "variable": "rating_2025",
      "reason": "Final-vintage field assigned in the 2025 review using realised default history through 2022 and average sample leverage; known only in 2025, not at end of origin year t. Including it would leak the outcome (look-ahead)."
    }
  ],
  "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
  "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,
  "r2": 0.03490564212216729,
  "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "Column rating_2025 is a final-vintage (2025) field built from realised defaults and average leverage: outcome leakage / look-ahead",
      "handling": "Excluded from analytic dataset and model; listed in variables_excluded"
    },
    {
      "issue": "40 duplicated (firm_id, year) rows in the extract; all are exact duplicates of another row (40 exact duplicates)",
      "handling": "Kept one copy of each firm-year (drop_duplicates)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "default_next missing for 2022: 300 rows (outcome year 2023 beyond data cut)",
      "handling": "Excluded from estimation sample; outcomes not imputed"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "firm_panel.csv": 2140
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "supp_ci95_leverage_cluster": [
    0.18390149920815163,
    0.34366572137950174
  ],
  "supp_se_leverage_hc1": 0.03744708748506851,
  "supp_beta_cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,
  "supp_beta_log_sales": -0.007342181807581363,
  "supp_intercept": 0.08997926409935522,
  "supp_year_range": [
    2016,
    2021
  ]
}