{
  "task_id": "F1-conf-03",
  "n_analysed": 1800,
  "n_firms": 300,
  "predictors_used": [
    "leverage",
    "cash_ratio",
    "log_sales"
  ],
  "variables_excluded": [
    {
      "variable": "rating_2025",
      "reason": "known only in 2025 and constructed from the firm's realised default history through 2022 (contains the outcome) and average leverage over the sample; violates the end-of-year-t availability rule (look-ahead/target leakage)"
    },
    {
      "variable": "default_next",
      "reason": "outcome variable, not a predictor (known only at end of t+1)"
    },
    {
      "variable": "firm_id",
      "reason": "identifier; used only for clustering, not as a regressor"
    },
    {
      "variable": "year",
      "reason": "origin-year identifier; not part of the specified model"
    }
  ],
  "beta_leverage": 0.2637836102938267,
  "se_leverage_cluster": 0.0407569280434615,
  "r2": 0.03490564212216729,
  "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "40 exact duplicate firm-year rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys, all with identical values)",
      "handling": "dropped duplicates keeping one copy; panel becomes balanced 300 firms x 7 years"
    },
    {
      "issue": "default_next missing for 307 raw rows, all in origin year(s) [2022] (outcome year not observed at data cut)",
      "handling": "rows excluded from estimation (ledger step 3); no imputation"
    },
    {
      "issue": "rating_2025 is a final-vintage field built from realised defaults (outcome leakage)",
      "handling": "column excluded from analytic dataset"
    },
    {
      "issue": "leverage has a mass point at its minimum 0.02 (54 firm-years in estimation sample), suggesting floor/censoring in the extract",
      "handling": "kept as recorded; noted as limitation"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "firm_panel.csv": 2140
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "baseline_default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "intercept": 0.08997926409935522,
  "beta_cash_ratio": -0.18594837465723182,
  "beta_log_sales": -0.007342181807581363,
  "se_leverage_classical": 0.035820571091069786,
  "ci95_leverage_cluster": [
    0.18390149920815163,
    0.34366572137950174
  ],
  "p_leverage_cluster": 9.663918872288981e-11,
  "n_clusters": 300
}