{
  "task_id": "F6-conf-03",
  "sample_start": "1960-01-01",
  "sample_end": "2019-10-01",
  "n_sub1": 96,
  "n_sub2": 144,
  "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,
  "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,
  "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,
  "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,
  "effect_se": 0.03598488399675878,
  "hac_lags": 4,
  "effect_ci_low": -0.3262968043702248,
  "effect_ci_high": -0.18523865112722682,
  "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,
  "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,
  "chow_f_stat": 6.090333006233798,
  "chow_p_value": 0.0026363238517333456,
  "stability_conclusion": "unstable",
  "conclusion": "negative_effect",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "UNRATE 2025-10-01 value is blank in the FRED file",
      "handling": "dropped; outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window, no effect on estimates"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Files extend to 2026 (beyond question period)",
      "handling": "truncated to 1959Q4-2019Q4 levels before differencing; no post-2019Q4 data enters any estimate"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Data are the 2026 vintage (revised, chained 2017 dollars), not real-time",
      "handling": "used as provided; noted as limitation"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "GDPC1.csv": 319,
    "UNRATE.csv": 945
  },
  "n_analysed": 240,
  "random_seed": null,
  "r_squared_full": 0.4082508284562034,
  "effect_se_ols_classical": 0.01996009291490984,
  "chow_df": [
    2,
    236
  ],
  "hac_lags_sub1": 3,
  "hac_lags_sub2": 4,
  "slope_se_sub1_hac": 0.03921717107661775,
  "slope_se_sub2_hac": 0.06879369233083425,
  "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,
  "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,
  "effect_se_hac_lags8": 0.03729120927832668,
  "hac_wald_slope_diff_p": 0.8549842111206841,
  "hac_wald_intercept_diff_p": 0.25511124393301005,
  "hac_wald_joint_p": 0.005229923279613946,
  "resid_var_sub1": 0.07850312611325812,
  "resid_var_sub2": 0.04827674526450526,
  "mean_du": -0.008333333333333335,
  "mean_g": 0.753502755065237
}