{
  "task_id": "F6-conf-03",
  "sample_start": "1960-01-01",
  "sample_end": "2019-10-01",
  "n_sub1": 96,
  "n_sub2": 144,
  "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,
  "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,
  "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,
  "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,
  "effect_se": 0.03583463330296569,
  "hac_lags": 4,
  "effect_ci_low": -0.32600231842173816,
  "effect_ci_high": -0.18553313707571345,
  "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,
  "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,
  "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,
  "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,
  "stability_conclusion": "unstable",
  "conclusion": "negative_effect",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "UNRATE missing value(s) at ['2025-10-01']",
      "handling": "outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window; that quarter is incomplete and is excluded by the date truncation; no effect on estimates"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Both files extend beyond 2019Q4 (to 2026)",
      "handling": "quarters after 2019Q4 removed before any estimation (information rule)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "GDPC1 is the 2026 vintage (revised data, chained 2017 dollars), not real-time data",
      "handling": "used as is; the question is historical; noted as a limitation"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "GDPC1.csv": 319,
    "UNRATE.csv": 945
  },
  "n_analysed": 240,
  "random_seed": null,
  "r_squared": 0.4082508284562034,
  "ols_classical_se_beta": 0.01996009291490984,
  "effect_se_lag_sensitivity": {
    "0": 0.028836223207269963,
    "2": 0.03422732023615383,
    "4": 0.03583463330296569,
    "6": 0.03687902855135959,
    "8": 0.03713550417540189,
    "12": 0.0364088511022809
  },
  "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,
  "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,
  "beta_sub1_hac_se": 0.03928680828959863,
  "beta_sub2_hac_se": 0.06831428793738023,
  "chow_df": [
    2,
    236
  ],
  "mean_growth": 0.753502755065237,
  "mean_du": -0.008333333333333335,
  "resid_rmse_sub1": 0.2772501475549326,
  "resid_rmse_sub2": 0.21818853066467392,
  "n_merged_quarters": 314,
  "implied_breakeven_growth_full": 0.7209211099660549
}