- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: data audited; post-2019 rows truncated; UNRATE 2025-10 NaN outside window.
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: baseline RMSE and OLS/HAC(4 lags, NW rule)/Chow computed. Decision: HAC without small-sample correction, normal-based CI; subperiod SEs HAC with NW rule lags. Supplementary HAC Wald tests added.
- 2026-10-30 P4 checks run, all PASS; running gate.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate receipt 20261030T045159). P5: report and claims written; running final gate.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed; final gate PASSED (receipt 20261030T045238).