{
  "task_id": "F6-conf-03",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "UNRATE missing value(s) for month(s) ['2025-10-01']",
      "handling": "Quarter containing a missing month is not averaged (set missing); all such months lie outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window, so no effect on estimates."
    },
    {
      "issue": "GDPC1 is the current (2026) vintage and extends to 2026Q3; UNRATE extends to 2026-09",
      "handling": "Observations after 2019Q4 dropped before estimation (exclusion step 3); revised (not real-time) GDP is used, consistent with an ex-post descriptive estimand."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "GDPC1.csv": 319,
    "UNRATE.csv": 945
  },
  "n_analysed": 240,
  "random_seed": null,
  "sample_start": "1960-01-01",
  "sample_end": "2019-10-01",
  "n_sub1": 96,
  "n_sub2": 144,
  "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,
  "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,
  "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,
  "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,
  "effect_se": 0.03598488399675878,
  "hac_lags": 4,
  "effect_ci_low": -0.3262968043702248,
  "effect_ci_high": -0.18523865112722682,
  "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,
  "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,
  "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,
  "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,
  "stability_conclusion": "unstable",
  "conclusion": "negative_effect",
  "intercept_sub1": 0.2542326539884382,
  "intercept_sub2": 0.15168581347724602,
  "beta_sub1_hac_se": 0.03970255328838903,
  "beta_sub2_hac_se": 0.06879369233083424,
  "effect_se_ols_classical": 0.01996009291490984,
  "effect_se_hac_by_lag": {
    "0": 0.028957130333809637,
    "2": 0.034370831642247524,
    "4": 0.03598488399675878,
    "8": 0.03729120927832667,
    "12": 0.03656150942843361
  },
  "r_squared": 0.4082508284562034,
  "chow_df": [
    2,
    236
  ],
  "ssr_pooled": 14.96928154281957,
  "ssr_unrestricted": 14.23459168220601,
  "hac_wald_joint_equality_p": 0.004644584888844005,
  "hac_wald_slope_equality_p": 0.8548271295127583,
  "hac_wald_intercept_equality_p": 0.2539549178567923,
  "resid_var_sub1": 0.07850312611325812,
  "resid_var_sub2": 0.04827674526450526,
  "growth_for_stable_u_sub1": 0.9815134738876885,
  "growth_for_stable_u_sub2": 0.5548277280747038
}