"""F5-conf-03: counterexample to 'sum of normals is normal' (Prop. A) and check of Prop. B. Run from workspace root: ~/wp29/venv/bin/python out/analysis.py Reads only data/; writes out/results.json and out/counterexample.csv deterministically.""" import json, os import numpy as np import pandas as pd from scipy import stats ROOT = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))) D = os.path.join(ROOT, "data"); O = os.path.join(ROOT, "out") props = pd.read_csv(os.path.join(D, "propositions.csv")) design = pd.read_csv(os.path.join(D, "design.csv")) issues = [] assert set(props["id"]) == {"A", "B"}, "propositions.csv must contain A and B" p = dict(zip(design["parameter"], design["value"])) seed = int(p["seed"]); n = int(p["n"]) assert n > 0 # ---- Counterexample to A: X ~ N(0,1), S independent Rademacher (+/-1 w.p. 1/2), Y = S*X. # Y ~ N(0,1) by symmetry of N(0,1); X+Y = (1+S)X equals 0 w.p. 1/2 and 2X w.p. 1/2. rng = np.random.default_rng(seed) x = rng.standard_normal(n) s = rng.choice(np.array([-1.0, 1.0]), size=n) y = s * x z = x + y pd.DataFrame({"x": x, "y": y}).to_csv(os.path.join(O, "counterexample.csv"), index=False) def ks_fit(v): return float(stats.kstest(v, "norm", args=(v.mean(), v.std(ddof=1))).statistic) cv = { "construction": ("X ~ N(0,1); S independent of X with P(S=1)=P(S=-1)=1/2; Y = S*X. " "Then Y ~ N(0,1), but X+Y = (1+S)X equals 0 with probability 1/2 and 2X otherwise " "(atom at 0, non-constant), so X+Y is not normal."), "n": int(n), "seed": seed, "mean_x": float(x.mean()), "sd_x": float(x.std(ddof=1)), "mean_y": float(y.mean()), "sd_y": float(y.std(ddof=1)), "mean_sum": float(z.mean()), "sd_sum": float(z.std(ddof=1)), "ks_sum_vs_normal": ks_fit(z), } # Supplementary numerical checks (illustrative only, not proof) checks = { "ks_x_vs_fitted_normal": ks_fit(x), "ks_y_vs_fitted_normal": ks_fit(y), "ks_x_vs_N01_pvalue": float(stats.kstest(x, "norm").pvalue), "ks_y_vs_N01_pvalue": float(stats.kstest(y, "norm").pvalue), "frac_sum_exactly_zero": float(np.mean(z == 0.0)), "theoretical_frac_sum_zero": 0.5, "theoretical_sd_sum": float(np.sqrt(2.0)), "ks_sum_vs_fitted_normal_pvalue": float(stats.kstest(z, "norm", args=(z.mean(), z.std(ddof=1))).pvalue), } # Baseline for Prop. B: independent X', Y' ~ N(0,1) (separate stream seeded [seed, 1]), sum vs N(0,2) rngb = np.random.default_rng([seed, 1]) xb = rngb.standard_normal(n); yb = rngb.standard_normal(n) checks["propB_ks_sum_independent_vs_N02"] = float(stats.kstest(xb + yb, "norm", args=(0.0, np.sqrt(2.0))).statistic) checks["propB_ks_pvalue"] = float(stats.kstest(xb + yb, "norm", args=(0.0, np.sqrt(2.0))).pvalue) res = { "task_id": "F5-conf-03", "statement_true": False, "counterexample_provided": True, "counterexample_values": cv, "statement_b_true": True, "feasibility": "complete", "feasibility_reason": None, "data_issues": issues, "n_input_rows": {"propositions.csv": int(len(props)), "design.csv": int(len(design))}, "n_analysed": int(n), "random_seed": seed, "numerical_checks": checks, } with open(os.path.join(O, "results.json"), "w") as f: json.dump(res, f, indent=2) print(json.dumps(res, indent=2))