{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "ardl_emp_direct",
  "model_description": "Direct h-step OLS regression per horizon and origin of gdp_yoy(m) on a constant, gdp_yoy(m-h-2) and emp_yoy(m-h-1), estimated on an expanding window from 1998 using only training pairs whose target month is <= t-2 (and employment <= t-1), excluding pairs touching 2020-03..2021-12 (COVID); forecast plugs in gdp_yoy(t-2) and emp_yoy(t-1).",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.8136209149,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.7429391714,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.6039917578,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827161,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.902300024,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.7534546734,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.086873066,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.2084967507,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "README states gdp_yoy is empty for the first 12 months, but gdp_yoy and emp_yoy are populated from 1998-01 (presumably from pre-1998 levels not in the file).",
      "handling": "Used the provided yoy values as given; they match recomputation from levels to <=5e-5 where verifiable."
    },
    {
      "issue": "gdp_level/gdp_yoy missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published).",
      "handling": "Expected; never needed (last target month 2026-07, last GDP used 2026-02)."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Extreme COVID-19 swings 2020-03..2021-06 and base effects through 2021 in both series.",
      "handling": "Pre-specified exclusion of training pairs touching 2020-03..2021-12 from the model; sensitivity without exclusion reported (sens_* keys). Naive baseline unaffected."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Data are the current vintage (revised), not first releases.",
      "handling": "Exercise simulates publication timing only; no real-time validity claimed."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 310,
  "n_analysed_last_origin_h3": 306,
  "random_seed": null,
  "dm_stat_h1": -2.0256610645,
  "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.0484981975,
  "sens_rmse_model_nocovidexcl_h1": 0.8040049585,
  "sens_rel_improvement_rmse_nocovidexcl_h1": 0.0118187183,
  "dm_stat_h3": -1.3490597541,
  "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.1837816051,
  "sens_rmse_model_nocovidexcl_h3": 0.7937029597,
  "sens_rel_improvement_rmse_nocovidexcl_h3": 0.3037587777
}