[
 {"id": "C1", "text": "Over the 48 origins the adl_emp_direct model has lower RMSE and MAE than the naive forecast at h=1 (relative RMSE improvement about 0.087).", "results_keys": ["rmse_model_h1", "rmse_naive_h1", "mae_model_h1", "mae_naive_h1", "rel_improvement_rmse_h1"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Current-vintage data; DM test not significant (p=0.165)."},
 {"id": "C2", "text": "At h=3 the model has lower RMSE and MAE than the naive forecast (relative RMSE improvement about 0.208).", "results_keys": ["rmse_model_h3", "rmse_naive_h3", "mae_model_h3", "mae_naive_h3", "rel_improvement_rmse_h3"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "DM test not significant (p=0.134); gain concentrated in 2022 origins."},
 {"id": "C3", "text": "The improvements are not statistically significant at conventional levels according to Diebold-Mariano tests.", "results_keys": ["dm_stat_h1", "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h1", "dm_stat_h3", "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h3"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Small sample, HAC variance with h+1 lags."},
 {"id": "C4", "text": "All forecasts respect the publication-lag rules (GDP <= t-2, employment <= t-1).", "results_keys": ["last_target_date_available", "last_predictor_date_available", "last_origin"], "status": "supported", "caveat": "Verified row by row in out/forecasts.csv; timing simulation only, not real-time vintages."},
 {"id": "C5", "text": "The share of the gain attributable to employment growth specifically (vs. mean reversion) is not established.", "results_keys": ["model_description"], "status": "not_evaluated", "caveat": "No no-employment comparison model was run."}
]