- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: data audited; decision: truncate info set per origin; exclude 2020-03..2021-12 rows from estimation (decided before seeing out-of-sample results).
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: naive baseline and direct_ols_ar_emp computed by out/analysis.py.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: clean re-run identical; consistency checks pass (checks.md).
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report.md and claims.json written.