{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "adl_direct_emp",
  "model_description": "Direct (per-horizon) OLS regression of gdp_yoy(t+h) on a constant, gdp_yoy(t-2) and emp_yoy(t-1), re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window of training rows (from 1998-03) whose target month is <= t-2, excluding rows touching 2020-03..2021-12.",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.7429391714223801,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.6039917578066155,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.9023000239646665,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.7534546734385598,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08687306602134803,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.20849675065004825,
  "dm_test": {
    "h1": {
      "mean_loss_diff_model_minus_naive": -0.11002038069122726,
      "dm_stat_hln": -1.3266201174612682,
      "p_value_two_sided": 0.191044366683287,
      "nw_lags": 2
    },
    "h3": {
      "mean_loss_diff_model_minus_naive": -0.485415259670029,
      "dm_stat_hln": -1.3657496075270925,
      "p_value_two_sided": 0.178518085003236,
      "nw_lags": 4
    }
  },
  "n_training_last_origin_h3": 306,
  "sensitivity_no_covid_exclusion": {
    "rmse_h1": 0.8040049585200156,
    "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.011818718251932037,
    "rmse_h3": 0.7937029596656197,
    "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.3037587776694858
  },
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "README states gdp_yoy is empty for the first 12 months, but the file contains yoy values for 1998 (both series).",
      "handling": "Used as given; yoy recomputed from levels agrees to rounding (<5e-5) where possible."
    },
    {
      "issue": "gdp columns missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published).",
      "handling": "Not needed: latest target (2026-07) and latest GDP input (2026-02) are present."
    },
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 outliers (gdp_yoy from -16.2 to +18.5 in 2020-2021).",
      "handling": "Model training rows touching 2020-03..2021-12 excluded; naive unaffected; see out/exclusions.csv."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Current-vintage data (revised), not first releases.",
      "handling": "Exercise simulates publication timing only; no real-time validity claimed."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 310,
  "random_seed": null
}