{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "dar_emp",
  "model_description": "Direct OLS per horizon h: gdp_yoy[m] = a + b*gdp_yoy[m-h-2] + c*emp_yoy[m-h-1], re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window from 1999-01 using only GDP<=t-2 and employment<=t-1, excluding pairs touching 2020-03..2021-12; forecast = a + b*gdp_yoy[t-2] + c*emp_yoy[t-1].",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.7431234005043874,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.6033834780707515,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.8846320879202041,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.7345458638325594,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08664663491733049,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.2239951751397795,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "gdp_yoy/emp_yoy populated for 1998 although README says empty; not verifiable from levels",
      "handling": "1998 months excluded from all estimation samples"
    },
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 outliers 2020-03..2021-12 (GDP yoy from -16.2 to +18.5 %)",
      "handling": "training pairs touching this window excluded from model estimation; sensitivity without exclusion reported (sens_* keys)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "current-vintage data, not real-time vintages; future months present in file",
      "handling": "per-origin truncation to GDP<=t-2, employment<=t-1; no real-time validity claimed"
    },
    {
      "issue": "GDP missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published)",
      "handling": "not needed: latest target is 2026-07"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 298,
  "n_analysed_h3_last_origin": 294,
  "random_seed": null,
  "dm_stat_h1": -2.0786567385127537,
  "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.043133111090456186,
  "dm_stat_h3": -1.7160497992350492,
  "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.09273847211857501,
  "sens_nocovidexcl_rmse_model_h1": 0.7917413063357474,
  "sens_nocovidexcl_mae_model_h1": 0.6651695396431284,
  "sens_nocovidexcl_rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.026891649588910882,
  "sens_nocovidexcl_rmse_model_h3": 0.7760187171720593,
  "sens_nocovidexcl_mae_model_h3": 0.6651383260960358,
  "sens_nocovidexcl_rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.3192715062788043
}