{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "dir_ols_emp",
  "model_description": "Direct h-step OLS of gdp_yoy(s) on a constant, gdp_yoy(s-h-2) and emp_yoy(s-h-1), re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window from 1998 with targets <= t-2, excluding rows whose target or regressor month lies in 2020-03..2021-12; forecast plugs in gdp_yoy(t-2) and emp_yoy(t-1).",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.7429391714223801,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.6039917578066155,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.9023000239646665,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.7534546734385598,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08687306602134803,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.20849675065004825,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "gdp_level/gdp_yoy missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published)",
      "handling": "Not needed: latest target is 2026-07; rows never used as GDP information."
    },
    {
      "issue": "gdp_yoy and emp_yoy for 1998 depend on 1997 levels absent from the file and cannot be re-verified (all later yoy values match levels exactly)",
      "handling": "Accepted as given."
    },
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 shock 2020-03..2021-12 with yoy values between -16 and +19 percent (extreme leverage)",
      "handling": "Regression rows touching this window excluded from model estimation (pre-specified); naive unaffected."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Current-vintage (revised) data, not historical first releases",
      "handling": "Only publication timing simulated; no real-time validity claimed."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 310,
  "random_seed": null,
  "dm_stat_h1": 2.0256610645246287,
  "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h1": 0.048498197529364746,
  "dm_stat_h3": 1.6396991600561308,
  "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h3": 0.10774494757001676,
  "rmse_ablation_no_emp_h1": 0.7153894841379895,
  "rmse_ablation_no_emp_h3": 0.8640294076084106
}