{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "ardl_direct_emp",
  "model_description": "Direct h-step OLS of gdp_yoy(t+h) on a constant, gdp_yoy(t-2) and emp_yoy(t-1), re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window from 1998 using only pairs whose target is published at the origin, excluding pairs touching 2020-03..2021-12.",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.7429391714223801,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.6039917578066155,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.9023000239646665,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.7534546734385598,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08687306602134803,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.20849675065004825,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "gdp_yoy/emp_yoy are filled for 1998-01..1998-12 although README says they are empty for the first 12 months (levels for 1997 are not in the file).",
      "handling": "Values used as given; for 1999-01 onward yoy columns were verified to match levels to 4 decimals."
    },
    {
      "issue": "GDP columns empty for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published).",
      "handling": "Expected; not needed since the last target is 2026-07."
    },
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 shock: yoy GDP growth ranges from -16.2% to +18.5% in 2020-2021, extreme outliers for OLS.",
      "handling": "Pre-specified (not tuned on test errors): training pairs in which the target or any regressor month lies in 2020-03..2021-12 are dropped from the model's estimation sample; the forecast at each origin still uses the latest available values."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 310,
  "n_analysed_by_horizon": {
    "h1": 310,
    "h3": 306
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "supplementary_dm_test": {
    "h1": {
      "dm_stat": -2.0256610645246287,
      "p_two_sided": 0.048498197529364746
    },
    "h3": {
      "dm_stat": -1.6522377575525033,
      "p_two_sided": 0.10515227707155102
    }
  }
}