{
  "task_id": "F6-conf-01",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "215 rows with empty DGS10 field (US market holidays)",
      "handling": "dropped before differencing, per TASK rule"
    },
    {
      "issue": "155 changes span more than 3 calendar days (holiday gaps, e.g. after Monday holidays or 2001-09-11 closure)",
      "handling": "kept as one-day changes between consecutive available observations, attributed to weekday of t, per TASK rule"
    },
    {
      "issue": "heavy-tailed changes (max |dy| = 51 bp on 2009-03-18)",
      "handling": "kept: large moves are plausible market events (the largest coincides with the 2009-03-18 FOMC announcement); no outlier removal; Welch CI used for the contrast"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "DGS10.csv": 5217
  },
  "n_analysed": 5001,
  "random_seed": null,
  "n_missing_rows": 215,
  "n_train": 2500,
  "n_test": 2501,
  "anova_f_stat": 0.263465716807118,
  "anova_p_value": 0.9015060507654888,
  "effect_estimate": 0.050170098401698796,
  "effect_ci_low": -0.31933577569409977,
  "effect_ci_high": 0.41967597249749733,
  "baseline_metric": 4.875704154642544,
  "model_metric": 4.883841522290305,
  "conclusion": "no_detectable_effect",
  "effect_se": 0.18837955539096196,
  "effect_welch_df": 1548.9581965107577,
  "effect_welch_p_value": 0.7900247217974709,
  "oos_mse_diff_mean": 0.0794170112483237,
  "oos_dm_t_stat": 1.8573748978469748,
  "oos_dm_p_value": 0.06325783524850241,
  "train_weekday_means_bp": {
    "Monday": -0.05434782608695652,
    "Tuesday": -0.40545808966861596,
    "Wednesday": -0.2054263565891473,
    "Thursday": 0.01383399209486166,
    "Friday": 0.11683168316831684
  },
  "rmse_ratio_model_to_baseline": 1.0016689625518014
}