{
  "task_id": "F6-conf-01",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "215 rows with empty DGS10 field (US market holidays / closures)",
      "handling": "dropped before computing changes, per TASK rule (see out/exclusions.csv)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "changes following a holiday span more than one business day (e.g. Tuesday after a Monday holiday)",
      "handling": "kept and attributed to the weekday of t, per TASK definition; noted as a limitation"
    },
    {
      "issue": "large outlier change of -51 bp on 2009-03-18 (FOMC QE announcement)",
      "handling": "genuine market move; kept (no outlier removal)"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "DGS10.csv": 5217
  },
  "n_analysed": 5001,
  "random_seed": null,
  "n_missing_rows": 215,
  "n_train": 2500,
  "n_test": 2501,
  "anova_f_stat": 0.263465716807118,
  "anova_p_value": 0.9015060507654888,
  "effect_estimate": 0.050170098401698796,
  "effect_ci_low": -0.31933577569409977,
  "effect_ci_high": 0.41967597249749733,
  "baseline_metric": 4.875704154642544,
  "model_metric": 4.883841522290305,
  "conclusion": "no_detectable_effect",
  "effect_se": 0.18837955539096196,
  "effect_welch_df": 1548.9581965107577,
  "effect_welch_p_value": 0.7900247217974709,
  "effect_ci_method": "Welch two-sample t interval (Monday vs Tue-Fri, all changes)",
  "oos_rmse_ratio_model_to_baseline": 1.0016689625518014,
  "oos_rmse_train_unconditional_mean": 4.8751986528852305,
  "oos_dm_stat_model_vs_zero": 1.8573748978469748,
  "oos_dm_p_value": 0.06325783524850241,
  "train_weekday_means_bp": {
    "Monday": -0.05434782608695652,
    "Tuesday": -0.40545808966861596,
    "Wednesday": -0.2054263565891473,
    "Thursday": 0.01383399209486166,
    "Friday": 0.11683168316831684
  },
  "n_changes_total": 5001
}