# F4-dev-01 — LFS September 2026: headline figures and an assertion

## Question
From the provided extract of Statistics Canada's *The Daily*, "Labour Force Survey, September 2026" (released 2026-10-09): (a) extract the national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate and the monthly change in employment for September 2026, with section locators; (b) judge whether the release supports: "In September 2026, the unemployment rate among core-aged women (aged 25 to 54) rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.3%, and the unemployment rate among core-aged men also rose, by 0.2 percentage points, to 5.8%."

## Data and exclusions
Inputs: `data/sources/statcan-daily-lfs-2026-09.txt` (164 lines) and `data/README.md` (9 lines) (`n_input_rows`). The SHA-256 of the extract matches the value in the README (`source_sha256`). No lines were excluded (`out/exclusions.csv`). The extract contains no tables or charts, only their headings; none were needed. The README includes template text about tables (RESEA, London, regression tables) that has nothing to do with this extract; it was ignored (`data_issues`).

## Method
`out/analysis.py` assigns each line of the extract to the most recent `## ` section heading. It then uses regular expressions to find the headline sentences in the "Highlights" section and the core-aged sentences in the section "Unemployment rate up for core-aged women". It prints every line it matched. Values are taken exactly as printed. "Declined by 68,000" becomes −68000. As a baseline and cross-check, the same figures are also read from the sections that discuss each one in detail (`baseline_unemployment_rate_dedicated_section`, `baseline_employment_change_dedicated_section`). Each element of the assertion (direction, size of the change, level) is compared string by string with the release text. No randomness is involved (`random_seed` = null).

## Results
- National unemployment rate, September 2026: **6.5%** (`unemployment_rate_sep2026`). Locator: `statcan-daily-lfs-2026-09 | section "Highlights"` (`locators`).
- Monthly employment change, September 2026: **−68000 persons** (`employment_change_sep2026_persons`). Locator: `statcan-daily-lfs-2026-09 | section "Highlights"` (`locators`).
- Both figures match the restatements in the dedicated sections (`headline_crosscheck_agree` = true).
- Assertion verdict: **not_supported** (`assertion_verdict`). Locator: section "Unemployment rate up for core-aged women" (`assertion_locator`). The women's part matches the release. The release says the core-aged men's rate "fell 0.2 percentage points to 5.8%", which contradicts "also rose" (`assertion_reason`).
- Items assessed: 3 (`n_analysed`).

## Uncertainty
The figures are printed point estimates from a sample survey. The release's notes say it discusses differences that are significant at the 68% confidence level. The extract gives no standard errors, so no sampling uncertainty is reported here. The extraction itself is deterministic. The two independent statements of each figure in the release agree (`headline_crosscheck_agree`).

## Limitations and open issues
- The only evidence used is the extract. Its data tables (for example Table 1 by age group and gender) are not included, so table values could not be checked against the narrative.
- The regex patterns were written for this release's wording and may not carry over to other releases.
- The README template inconsistency (`data_issues`) does not affect the results.
- Feasibility: complete (`feasibility`).