[
 {"id":"C1","text":"At the 1-month horizon the AR(2)-on-differences model has higher RMSE than the naive forecast (relative improvement -0.023).","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h1","rmse_model_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h1"],"status":"supported","caveat":"35 evaluated pairs; final-vintage data."},
 {"id":"C2","text":"At the 3-month horizon the AR(2) model is also marginally worse than naive in RMSE (relative improvement -0.007).","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h3","rmse_model_h3","rel_improvement_rmse_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Difference not significant at 5% by Diebold-Mariano (p~0.10); overlapping errors."},
 {"id":"C3","text":"The AR(2) model's MAE is slightly higher than the naive MAE at both horizons.","results_keys":["mae_naive_h1","mae_model_h1","mae_naive_h3","mae_model_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Small differences (<0.005 pp)."},
 {"id":"C4","text":"One target month (2025-10) is missing, leaving 35 evaluated pairs per horizon.","results_keys":["n_evaluated_h1","n_evaluated_h3","data_issues"],"status":"supported","caveat":""},
 {"id":"C5","text":"The simple AR model does not beat the naive forecast over 2023-07 to 2026-06 origins.","results_keys":["rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Single pre-specified model; no nested-model (Clark-West) adjustment; calm period."}
]