{
 "P0": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "TASK.md read fully; contract.md written"
  ],
  "notes": ""
 },
 "P1": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "SHA-256 of all 23 data files computed and match data/README.md/bundle.json",
   "row/col counts, date ranges, NaN, duplicate dates and monthly gaps checked for every file (no gaps/dups; UMCSENT 210 empty pre-1978)",
   "last(V) for each vintage tabulated; publication delays recorded",
   "RSAFS_current flagged as forecast-forbidden; used only for (d)"
  ],
  "notes": "see data_audit.md"
 },
 "P2": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "naive, seasonal naive, AR(1) baselines computed per TASK rules for 10 origins x 2 horizons",
   "naive forecasts verified equal to first-release YoY of last(V) where that month's first release is in vintage V"
  ],
  "notes": "baseline keys rmse/mae_{naive,snaive,ar1}_h{1,3}"
 },
 "P3": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "analysis.py reads only data/, writes results.json, forecasts.csv, table1.csv, figure1.png, exclusions.csv",
   "model pre-specified (RW+drift on log level, 12m drift), no tuning on actuals",
   "no randomness; random_seed null"
  ],
  "notes": ""
 },
 "P4": {
  "status": "blocked",
  "checks": [
   "clean re-run of analysis.py: results.json byte-identical (cmp)",
   "15 internal-consistency checks in checks.md: 14 ok, 1 fails (origin_date<target_date for 40 h=1 rows, structural)",
   "gate run 1: receipt 20261030T053622.377099Z.json - fails sections/claims/phase (not yet written) and forecasts_chronology (structural)",
   "gate run 2 (end of P5): receipt 20261030T053807.287572Z.json - 64/65 ok; only forecasts_chronology fails (structural)"
  ],
  "notes": "Blocked only by gate forecasts_chronology rule, which is unsatisfiable under TASK.md's definitions (target=last(V)+h, target_date YYYY-MM-01, last(V) lags origin). Dates not altered to avoid misrepresentation."
 },
 "P5": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "report.md written with 6 required sections, every number cites a results.json key",
   "claims.json written: 5 claims, all keys exist in results.json",
   "gate run 2: receipt 20261030T053807.287572Z.json - passed=false solely due to forecasts_chronology (documented)"
  ],
  "notes": "Reporting completed per stopping rule (all required files written despite P4 block)."
 }
}