{
 "P0": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "TASK.md read fully",
   "out/state/contract.md written"
  ],
  "notes": ""
 },
 "P1": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "SHA-256 of all 23 data files computed and match bundle/README",
   "row/col counts, date ranges, missing values, duplicates, monthly gaps computed (data_audit.md)",
   "last(V) per origin and publication delays documented",
   "exclusion ledger written: 20->20, 0 removed",
   "availability decision: RSAFS_current only for estimand (d)"
  ],
  "notes": ""
 },
 "P2": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "naive, seasonal naive, AR(1) baselines computed with the first-release evaluation rule (rmse/mae_*_h1/h3 in results.json)"
  ],
  "notes": "Baselines computed in the same analysis.py run as the model; model specification logged before errors were computed."
 },
 "P3": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "analysis.py reads only data/, writes results.json, forecasts.csv, table1.csv, figure1.png",
   "no randomness (random_seed null)",
   "model forecasts use only RSAFS vintage V"
  ],
  "notes": ""
 },
 "P4": {
  "status": "blocked",
  "checks": [
   "clean re-run: results.json byte-identical, CSVs identical",
   "internal consistency checks in out/state/checks.md all PASS",
   "independent DM recompute matches",
   "gate run 1 receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T055243.519704Z.json: failed (report/claims missing at that time, exclusion csv quoting, phase ledger, forecasts_chronology)",
   "gate run 2 receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T055408.600694Z.json: failed only phase_ledger (non-terminal) and forecasts_chronology",
   "resumed session gate run, receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T055445.919780Z.json: still fails only forecasts_chronology (40 h=1 rows); re-verified that all 40 are h=1 rows and that target month > last(V) for all 80 rows",
   "second resumed session gate run, receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T055507.704686Z.json: same single failure (forecasts_chronology); unchanged decision not to falsify dates",
   "third resumed session gate run, receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T055519.646045Z.json: same single failure (forecasts_chronology); dates not falsified"
  ],
  "notes": "Blocked on an irreconcilable conflict: gate requires origin_date < target_date for every row, but TASK.md defines target = last(V)+h with target_date = first day of that month; for h=1 this date always precedes the month-end origin (1-2 month publication lag). The real-time condition target month > last(V) holds for all 80 rows. Changing target_date would misrepresent the data; kept as specified. Resumed session: no honest fix exists. Passing would require relabelling origin_date or target_date, contradicting TASK.md's definitions and misdating the data; declined. Status stays blocked."
 },
 "P5": {
  "status": "passed",
  "checks": [
   "report.md with the 6 required sections, every number citing a results.json key",
   "claims.json with 5 claims referencing existing keys",
   "final gate run recorded (see notes)",
   "gate run 3 (end of P5) receipt out/state/gate_receipts/20261030T055419.122550Z.json: 64/65 pass; only forecasts_chronology fails (documented spec conflict)"
  ],
  "notes": "Completed despite the P4 gate conflict, which is documented in report.md Limitations and open issues."
 }
}