[
 {"id":"C1","text":"At h=1 the base-effect drift model has the lowest RMSE and MAE of all four methods and reduces RMSE by about 45% relative to the naive forecast.","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","mae_model_h1","rmse_naive_h1","rmse_snaive_h1","rmse_ar1_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h1"],"status":"supported","caveat":"10 origins over one year only."},
 {"id":"C2","text":"At h=1 the Diebold-Mariano test (Newey-West lag 0, normal p-value) rejects equal accuracy of model and naive at 5%.","results_keys":["dm_stat_h1","dm_pvalue_h1","conclusion_code_h1","n_model_wins_h1","boot_rmse_diff_lo_h1","boot_rmse_diff_hi_h1"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Asymptotic test with n=10 and no HLN correction; suggestive rather than decisive."},
 {"id":"C3","text":"At h=3 the model has a lower RMSE than naive (about 20% improvement) but the difference is not statistically significant.","results_keys":["rmse_model_h3","rmse_naive_h3","rel_improvement_rmse_h3","dm_stat_h3","dm_pvalue_h3","conclusion_code_h3","boot_rmse_diff_lo_h3","boot_rmse_diff_hi_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Margin over AR(1) at h=3 is small; bootstrap interval includes zero."},
 {"id":"C4","text":"Seasonal naive is the worst method at h=1 but beats naive at h=3; AR(1) beats naive at both horizons.","results_keys":["rmse_snaive_h1","rmse_snaive_h3","rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h3","rmse_ar1_h1","rmse_ar1_h3"],"status":"supported","caveat":"No significance tests for baseline comparisons."},
 {"id":"C5","text":"The first-release YoY growth of the h=1 target months differs from currently published growth by about 0.55 pp on average, all revisions being downward.","results_keys":["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets","mean_signed_revision_h1_targets","max_abs_revision_h1_targets"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Dominated by one large annual/benchmark revision in 2026."},
 {"id":"C6","text":"All forecasts respect the information-availability rule: each uses only the RSAFS vintage dated at its origin, and every actual is first released after the origin.","results_keys":["last_month_by_origin","n_analysed"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The gate's origin_date < target_date rule fails for h=1 rows by construction of the task's target definition; see Limitations."}
]