# Task card — F2-smoke-01

- **Family / split**: F2 Estimation and inference / development (smoke test)
- **Question**: OLS slope of y on x with firm-clustered uncertainty; estimand = linear-projection slope β.
- **Data type**: synthetic (simulated, seed 20261029), 2,000 rows, 50 firms × 40 observations, strong within-firm correlation (firm shock variance 1 = idiosyncratic variance).
- **Scope / prerequisites**: OLS, cluster-robust variance; no exclusions needed.
- **Allowed information**: `data/panel.csv` only.
- **Expected artifacts**: results.json (14 keys), report.md (6 sections), analysis.py, claims.json.
- **Rubric summary**: required criteria — slope to 1e-4; cluster SE within 8% of the CR1 reference; CI bounds within 0.03; exact counts; cluster SE > conventional SE. Critical checks — input row count must be reported correctly (fabrication), feasibility must be "complete" (false completion/false blocking). Baseline = conventional SE.
- **Oracle provenance**: independent numpy implementation (`~/wp29-oracles/F2-smoke-01/generator.py`), designer = WP29 executor; no human check.
- **Difficulty rationale**: easy; exists to validate plumbing, treatment delivery and evaluators in all four arms.
- **Budget class**: benchmark (4.00 USD cap, 25 min wall, 80 turns per session).
- **Anticipated failure modes**: forgetting clustering; using HC-robust instead of cluster-robust SE; wrong CI critical value (both accepted by tolerance); missing common keys.
- **Contamination risk**: low (fresh simulated data; the method is textbook, which is intended).