# WP35 execution log (append-only; times local, America/Toronto)

| When | Phase | Action | Result / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 02:40 | 0 | Read series conventions (`HARMONISATION.md`, template, README of WP33/WP29) | WP35 = next free number; category `economie/` created |
| 2026-11-01 02:44 | 0 | Hardware/tool audit (`sysctl`, `df`, `which`, `latexmk --version`) | M5 Max 18 c / 48 GiB / 1.0 TiB free; TeX Live latexmk 4.88; uv 0.11.7; R 4.6.1 |
| 2026-11-01 02:45 | 0 | Connectivity probes (curl, 8 URLs) | all HTTP 200 |
| 2026-11-01 02:46 | 0 | Release discovery: Seshat data page → Polaris-2026 GitHub; Zenodo API; GitHub API (D-PLACE tags, vdemdata) ; Maddison page → dataverse 421302/421303 | releases recorded in `configs/sources.yaml` |
| 2026-11-01 02:47 | 0 | Project skeleton + venv (`uv venv -p 3.12`, `uv pip install -e .`) | import check OK |
| 2026-11-01 02:48 | 0 | `python -m wp35.acquisition.fetch` | 6/8 downloaded; Zenodo 406 and GitHub 415 caused by `Accept: application/octet-stream` → fixed to `*/*`, re-run: 8/8 ; registry `data/metadata/source_registry.json` |
| 2026-11-01 02:50 | 0 | Zenodo MD5 check (57a4f436…) ; sheet/column inspection of all files | see `results/logs/feasibility_report.md` §2 |
| 2026-11-01 02:55 | 0 | Feasibility report written | `results/logs/feasibility_report.md` |
| 2026-11-01 03:05 | 1 | Crossref verification of 173 candidate references (`python -m wp35.validation.verify_bib`) | 145 VERIFIED_CROSSREF; corrections + books in `research/bib_overrides.csv` (one guessed DOI for Tainter 1988 resolved to another title → discarded) |
| 2026-11-01 03:10 | 1 | Subagent verification pass on the 18 closest works (abstracts/results read from primary sources) | `docs/novelty_search_report.md`; "Social Compression Hypothesis" has no prior academic use; closest precursor Shin et al. 2020 |
| 2026-11-01 03:20 | 1 | Structure-only inspection of CrisisDB codes, Seshat date coverage, V-Dem variables, EA variables (no predictor–outcome association) | 24,401/26,033 SC facts undated; CrisisDB 166 rows/150 polities |
| 2026-11-01 03:40 | 1 | Pre-registration written and frozen (D-003, SHA-256 ecda8804e17f931789be8e274ba1ff989000de356700a85b638b043928182e3a) ; literature review + novelty matrix | `research/preregistration.md`, `research/literature_review.md`, `research/decisions.md`, `configs/regions.yaml` |
| 2026-11-01 03:55 | 2 | Glottolog 5.3 languages.csv registered + fetched (language families for Galton controls) | registry 9 sources |
| 2026-11-01 04:10 | 2 | `python -m wp35.harmonization.build_panels` (3 runs: EA033 code parsing fixed via `ord`; EA202 continuous; Y6 redefined as last regime year with irregular end type after inspecting France 1789–1960) | `data/processed/*.parquet`, `results/diagnostics/*`, `paper/figures/fig_seshat_temporal_coverage.pdf`, `fig_seshat_missingness.pdf`, `fig_dplace_focal_years.pdf`, `fig_modern_coverage.pdf`, `coverage_summary.json` |
| 2026-11-01 04:15 | 2 | Data dictionary + parser tests (`pytest`: 6 passed) | `data/metadata/data_dictionary.md`, `tests/test_harmonization.py` |
| 2026-11-01 04:40 | 3 | Formal framework drafted (fork agent) and reviewed: Theorems 1–5 with proofs, Conjectures C1–C3, mapping to tests; Lindley 1952 / Loynes 1962 verified by Crossref and added | `research/framework.md` |
| 2026-11-01 04:50 | 3 | `python -m wp35.measurement.build_indices` (2 runs; IRT regularized with MAP priors after boundary estimates) | `data/processed/seshat_indices.parquet`, `seshat_crisis_indices.parquet`, `modern_indices.parquet`; `results/empirical/measurement_*`, `power_h2a_*.csv`; figures `fig_measurement_DK.pdf`, `fig_irt_invariance.pdf` |
| 2026-11-01 05:00 | 3 | Measurement report: corr(D,K)=0.84, P keeps 16.6% of variance; MDE Y1b≈0.6 (underpowered), Y1≈0.15 | `research/measurement.md` |
| 2026-11-01 05:30 | 4 | `python -m wp35.econometrics.h1` (Seshat OLS/mixed, EA Conley + ordered logit, modern within/differences) | `results/empirical/h1_*.csv` |
| 2026-11-01 05:45 | 4 | `python -m wp35.econometrics.h2_seshat` — FIRST predictor–outcome estimation (4 runs: binary spec switched to region-FE/HC1 after quasi-separation; H5 fallbacks for singular held-out designs) | `results/empirical/h2_seshat_*.csv`, `h4_seshat_summary.json`, `h5_seshat_blocks.csv`, `h2_seshat_y2_y3.csv`; log `results/logs/h2_seshat_run.log` |
| 2026-11-01 06:00 | 4 | `python -m wp35.econometrics.h2_modern` run 1 (placebo collinear with polyarchy control; negative control separated by duration terms → specs fixed, run 2 launched) | `results/empirical/h2_modern_*.csv`, `h4_modern_*`, `h5_modern_blocks.csv` |
| 2026-11-01 06:10 | 4 | `research/identification.md` written | — |
| 2026-11-01 06:20 | 5 | Simulation model + factorial runner written; smoke test showed message count bug (scalar) and root saturation → fixed, admin capacity made a factor; `python -m wp35.simulations.run_experiments` | `results/simulated/runs_main.parquet` (6,048 runs), `runs_ablation.parquet` (488 runs) |
| 2026-11-01 06:40 | 4 | `python -m wp35.econometrics.h2_modern` run 2 (placebo without polyarchy control; negative control without duration terms; H4 curve export) | `results/empirical/h2_modern_primary.csv`, `h2_modern_robustness.csv`, `h2_modern_cv_*`, `h4_modern_*`, `h5_modern_blocks.csv` |
| 2026-11-01 06:50 | 5 | Simulation model revised after inspection (Shannon code lengths to match Theorem 3; symmetric link removal 50%; spatially correlated dialects; fixed pre/post window for difference-in-differences; high-gain break-even cells) ; `run_experiments` + `analyze` rerun | `results/simulated/runs_main.parquet` (6,048), `runs_ablation.parquet` (584), `simulation_summary.json`, `cells_main.csv`, `paired_vs_none.csv`, `institution_loss_shares.csv`, `shock_effects.csv`, `ablation_*.csv`; figures `fig_sim_*.pdf` |
| 2026-11-01 07:30 | 7 | `python -m wp35.visualization.make_all` (26 table fragments, 15 figures) ; `python -m wp35.validation.build_bib` (182 entries: Crossref by DOI + verified manual) | `paper/tables/*.tex`, `paper/figures/*.pdf`, `paper/references.bib` |
| 2026-11-01 08:00 | 8 | Paper written (sections: introduction, literature [fork], theory [fork], data, methods, results_historical, results_modern, simulation, synthesis, limitations, conclusion, appendix) ; `latexmk -pdf main.tex` — fixes: `\input{}` → primitive `\input` in tabulars (misplaced \noalign), aer.bst header/month/underscore/encoding issues in references.bib, novelty table rotated | `paper/main.pdf` 73 pages, 0 undefined citations/references |