/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/discrete/conditional_models.py:80: UserWarning: Dropped 37 groups and 2823 observations for having no within-group variance warnings.warn(msg) /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " === PRIMARY === model term coef se p n events C1 primary: Y456 ~ P + X + region FE + year FE P_modern_z 0.398 0.089 0.000 14637 2692.0 C2: Y456 ~ P + FE only P_modern_z 0.723 0.080 0.000 15687 2981.0 C3: Y456 ~ P + K + X + FE (P given K) P_modern_z 0.229 0.094 0.015 14637 2692.0 B1 baseline population only D_modern_z 0.126 0.071 0.076 14754 2710.0 B2 baseline capacity only K_modern_z -0.632 0.126 0.000 15675 2957.0 B3 baseline development (gdppc) only log_gdppc -0.557 0.095 0.000 15862 2980.0 B4 baseline persistence y456_b5 0.136 0.133 0.307 15806 2968.0 B5 D and K separately D_modern_z 0.170 0.070 0.015 14637 2692.0 B5 D and K separately K_modern_z -0.707 0.137 0.000 14637 NaN Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled) P_placebo_z 0.197 0.059 0.001 14754 2710.0 Placebo comparison: P_main with the same controls as the placebo P_modern_z 0.446 0.083 0.000 14676 2706.0 Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms) P_modern_z 0.436 0.098 0.000 14608 2757.0 Forward comparison for the negative control: future events ~ P_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE P_modern_z 0.475 0.099 0.000 14637 2692.0 C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE P_modern_z 1.314 0.098 0.000 14637 2692.0 C5: linear probability, country + year FE P_modern_z_dm 0.111 0.031 0.000 14637 2692.0 === OOS wins === model baseline folds win_share mean_diff scheme metric C1 P B0 FE+X 2 0.500 -0.000 forward oos_loglik C1 P B0 FE+X 2 1.000 0.005 forward auc C1 P B1 D 2 0.500 0.000 forward oos_loglik C1 P B1 D 2 1.000 0.004 forward auc C1 P B2 K 2 0.000 -0.003 forward oos_loglik C1 P B2 K 2 0.000 -0.004 forward auc C1 P B4 persistence 2 1.000 0.002 forward oos_loglik C1 P B4 persistence 2 1.000 0.010 forward auc C1 P B5 D+K 2 0.000 -0.002 forward oos_loglik C1 P B5 D+K 2 0.000 -0.006 forward auc C1 P B0 FE+X 6 0.833 -0.000 loro oos_loglik C1 P B0 FE+X 6 0.833 0.008 loro auc C1 P B1 D 6 0.833 0.001 loro oos_loglik C1 P B1 D 6 1.000 0.007 loro auc C1 P B2 K 6 0.167 -0.009 loro oos_loglik C1 P B2 K 6 0.500 0.002 loro auc C1 P B4 persistence 6 0.833 -0.001 loro oos_loglik C1 P B4 persistence 6 0.667 0.008 loro auc C1 P B5 D+K 6 0.167 -0.008 loro oos_loglik C1 P B5 D+K 6 0.500 -0.001 loro auc === OOS summary === scheme model oos_loglik auc brier calibration_slope forward B0 FE+X -0.334 0.768 0.102 0.966 forward B1 D -0.334 0.769 0.103 0.957 forward B2 K -0.331 0.777 0.101 0.986 forward B4 persistence -0.336 0.763 0.103 0.951 forward B5 D+K -0.332 0.779 0.102 0.973 forward C1 P -0.334 0.773 0.103 0.951 loro B0 FE+X -0.518 0.674 0.142 0.437 loro B1 D -0.519 0.674 0.142 0.437 loro B2 K -0.509 0.680 0.139 0.430 loro B4 persistence -0.517 0.674 0.141 0.437 loro B5 D+K -0.510 0.683 0.140 0.431 loro C1 P -0.518 0.681 0.142 0.435 === H4 === { "folds": 15, "hinge_beats_linear_share": 0.8, "spline_beats_linear_share": 0.8666666666666667, "mean_ll_linear": -0.409645164238164, "mean_ll_hinge": -0.4086639943897043, "mean_ll_spline": -0.40637513694095, "median_knot": -0.08085854020686861 } === H5 === model coef se p n within_block_coef within_block_se within_block_n within_block_events H5 leave-region-out: 1.0 0.293 0.094 0.002 13252 1.067 0.432 1385 131 H5 leave-region-out: 2.0 0.328 0.099 0.001 12017 0.542 0.292 2620 773 H5 leave-region-out: 3.0 0.303 0.097 0.002 13175 0.449 0.350 1462 281 H5 leave-region-out: 4.0 0.312 0.117 0.008 11363 0.391 0.167 3274 747 H5 leave-region-out: 5.0 0.294 0.097 0.002 10717 0.781 0.285 3920 350 H5 leave-region-out: 6.0 0.470 0.093 0.000 12661 0.234 0.206 1976 410 H5 leave-period-out: 1900-1945 0.415 0.099 0.000 12616 0.298 0.187 2021 554 H5 leave-period-out: 1946-1989 0.361 0.113 0.001 8927 0.435 0.122 5710 1295 H5 leave-period-out: 1990+ 0.417 0.106 0.000 9285 0.348 0.161 5352 626 H5 leave-period-out: pre-1900 0.394 0.092 0.000 13083 0.665 0.277 1554 217 === ROBUSTNESS === model term coef se p n events oster_beta_full oster_beta_short partial_r2_P robustness_value R: horizon h=1 P_modern_z 0.3258 0.0908 0.0003 14635 902.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: horizon h=3 P_modern_z 0.3860 0.0871 0.0000 14636 1911.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: horizon h=10 P_modern_z 0.4532 0.1005 0.0000 14639 4143.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: component y4_f5 P_modern_z 1.0108 0.1970 0.0000 10279 566.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: component y5_f5 P_modern_z 0.1957 0.1369 0.1529 10853 1460.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: component y6_f5 P_modern_z 0.2452 0.0940 0.0091 14636 2068.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: K = PC1 P_modern_pc1_z 0.3972 0.0895 0.0000 14637 2692.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: standardized within year P_modern_within_year_z 0.4091 0.0909 0.0000 14637 2692.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: D = (log pop + log area)/2 P_modern_area_z 0.3520 0.0979 0.0003 11735 2359.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: years ≥ 1900 P_modern_z 0.3941 0.0918 0.0000 13083 2475.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: polyarchy not controlled P_modern_z 0.4463 0.0828 0.0000 14676 2706.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN R: + persistence control P_modern_z 0.3904 0.0888 0.0000 14598 2682.0 NaN NaN NaN NaN Sensitivity (LPM): Oster bias-adjusted β at Rmax=1.3·R² (δ=1); Cinelli–Hazlett RV P_modern_z -0.0238 NaN NaN 14637 NaN 0.0383 0.0819 0.0056 0.0719