/Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/discrete/discrete_model.py:2385: RuntimeWarning: overflow encountered in exp return 1/(1+np.exp(-X)) /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/discrete/discrete_model.py:2443: RuntimeWarning: divide by zero encountered in log return np.sum(np.log(self.cdf(q * linpred))) /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/UQO/Recherche/Recherche-UQO/economie/social-compression-hypothesis/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/statsmodels/base/model.py:607: ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check mle_retvals warnings.warn("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to " === PRIMARY (Y1 fractional logit, cluster region) === model term coef se p n A1 primary: Y1 ~ P + FE P_main_z 0.196 0.056 0.000 127 A2: Y1 ~ P + X + FE P_main_z 0.204 0.085 0.016 87 A3: Y1 ~ P + D + K + X + FE (P given components) P_main_z 0.204 0.083 0.014 87 B1 baseline D only D_pc1_z 0.257 0.138 0.063 94 B2 baseline K only K_mean_z -0.034 0.195 0.861 93 B3 baseline complexity PC1 complexity_pc1_z -0.010 0.240 0.966 100 B4 baseline persistence prior_crisis_nga 0.345 0.242 0.155 100 B5 D and K separately D_pc1_z 0.341 0.164 0.038 87 B5 D and K separately K_mean_z -0.213 0.193 0.271 87 Placebo: P built with production infrastructure instead of K P_placebo 0.257 0.138 0.063 94 A1b: Y1b ~ P + region FE (logit, HC1; era FE dropped: separation) P_main_z -0.178 0.203 0.381 123 A2b: Y1b ~ P + X + region FE (logit, HC1) P_main_z 0.184 0.324 0.571 86 A3b: Y1b ~ P (logit, HC1, no FE) P_main_z -0.068 0.180 0.703 123 Exploratory: reform consequences ~ P + X + FE P_main_z -0.015 0.181 0.935 86 === ROBUSTNESS === model term coef se p n R: K = IRT latent _P 0.146 0.088 0.098 94 R: D = log population only _P 0.265 0.105 0.011 70 R: K = PC1 of blocks _P 0.206 0.084 0.014 87 R: quasi-polities dropped P_main_z 0.153 0.107 0.154 83 R: crises starting ≥25 years after polity start P_main_z 0.250 0.091 0.006 76 R: ≥12 of 14 items coded P_main_z 0.184 0.091 0.043 84 R: no era FE P_main_z 0.252 0.105 0.017 87 R: no region FE P_main_z 0.232 0.084 0.005 87 R: no FE P_main_z 0.240 0.097 0.013 87 R: SE clustered by NGA P_main_z 0.204 0.085 0.016 87 R: SE clustered by polity P_main_z 0.204 0.096 0.033 87 === OOS wins of A2 over baselines === model baseline folds win_share mean_diff scheme A2 P B0 FE only 10 0.800 0.010 loro A2 P B1 D only 10 0.300 -0.003 loro A2 P B2 K only 10 0.700 0.010 loro A2 P B3 complexity 10 0.800 0.011 loro A2 P B4 persistence 10 0.700 0.003 loro A2 P B5 D+K 10 0.200 -0.003 loro A2 P B0 FE only 48 0.792 0.004 kfold A2 P B1 D only 48 0.750 0.002 kfold A2 P B2 K only 48 0.812 0.005 kfold A2 P B3 complexity 48 0.854 0.005 kfold A2 P B4 persistence 48 0.688 0.002 kfold A2 P B5 D+K 48 0.750 0.002 kfold === Y1b OOS summary === model oos_loglik auc brier A2 P -1.350 0.633 0.258 B0 FE only -1.278 0.641 0.249 B1 D only -1.339 0.634 0.257 B2 K only -1.318 0.630 0.259 B3 complexity -1.322 0.629 0.261 B4 persistence -1.341 0.624 0.263 B5 D+K -1.396 0.621 0.268 === H4 === { "folds": 48, "hinge_beats_linear_share": 0.10416666666666667, "spline_beats_linear_share": 0.08333333333333333, "mean_ll_linear": -0.6036253789830548, "mean_ll_hinge": -0.6091715368629916, "mean_ll_spline": -0.60583805621027, "median_knot": 0.08104350804004751, "insample_knot": 0.9186514745086101, "insample_hinge_coef": -0.3374682573990433, "insample_P_coef": 0.2670438154031941 } === H5 === model coef se p n held_out_n within_block_coef within_block_se H5 leave-region-out: Central_Asia 0.225 0.086 0.009 84 13 NaN NaN H5 leave-region-out: East_Asia 0.229 0.107 0.033 64 30 0.189 0.180 H5 leave-region-out: Europe 0.327 0.124 0.008 72 39 0.196 0.161 H5 leave-region-out: North_Africa 0.230 0.082 0.005 78 12 NaN NaN H5 leave-region-out: North_America 0.210 0.090 0.020 85 13 NaN NaN H5 leave-region-out: South_America 0.261 0.089 0.003 84 6 NaN NaN H5 leave-region-out: South_Asia 0.225 0.084 0.007 82 5 NaN NaN H5 leave-region-out: Southeast_Asia_Oceania 0.214 0.093 0.021 81 13 NaN NaN H5 leave-region-out: Southwest_Asia 0.235 0.090 0.009 70 29 0.437 0.234 H5 leave-region-out: Sub_Saharan_Africa 0.177 0.061 0.004 83 6 NaN NaN H5 leave-era-out: 1-1000 0.319 0.137 0.020 66 40 0.127 0.177 H5 leave-era-out: 1000BCE-0 0.204 0.174 0.242 69 28 0.340 0.081 H5 leave-era-out: 1001-1500 0.263 0.100 0.008 65 43 0.205 0.091 H5 leave-era-out: 1501-1800 0.224 0.073 0.002 73 31 0.300 0.524 H5 leave-era-out: post-1800 0.224 0.108 0.038 81 16 0.279 0.157 H5 leave-era-out: pre-1000BCE 0.242 0.107 0.024 81 8 NaN NaN === Y2 Cox / Y3 === model term coef se p n events hr schoenfeld_p_P Y2-1 Cox: P + strata(macro-region) P_z 0.031 0.060 0.600 317 302 1.032 NaN Y2-2 Cox: P + X + midpoint + strata P_z 0.000 0.068 0.995 208 201 1.000 0.983 Y2-3 Cox: D + K + X + midpoint + strata D_pc1_z 0.128 0.133 0.336 208 201 1.136 NaN Y2-3 Cox: D + K + X + midpoint + strata K_mean_z 0.559 0.200 0.005 208 201 1.749 NaN Y2-4 Cox: complexity PC1 + X + strata complexity_pc1_z 0.399 0.291 0.171 208 201 1.490 NaN Y3-1 logit: discontinuous succession ~ P + FE P_z 0.018 0.393 0.964 145 24 NaN NaN Y3-2 logit: + X P_z 0.239 0.325 0.461 117 18 NaN NaN