C1 primary: Y456 $\sim$ P + X + region FE + year FE & P\_modern\_z & 0.392$^{***}$ & 0.089 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
C2: Y456 $\sim$ P + FE only & P\_modern\_z & 0.723$^{***}$ & 0.080 & 15687 & 2981.00 \\
C3: Y456 $\sim$ P + K + X + FE (reparametrization of B5: beta\_P = beta\_D) & P\_modern\_z & 0.225$^{**}$ & 0.094 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
B1 baseline population only & D\_modern\_z & 0.122$^{*}$ & 0.071 & 14754 & 2710.00 \\
B2 baseline capacity only & K\_modern\_z & -0.631$^{***}$ & 0.131 & 15675 & 2957.00 \\
B3 baseline development (gdppc) only & log\_gdppc & -0.582$^{***}$ & 0.096 & 15862 & 2980.00 \\
B4 baseline persistence & y456\_b5 & 0.246$^{*}$ & 0.138 & 15806 & 2968.00 \\
B5 D and K separately & D\_modern\_z & 0.166$^{**}$ & 0.070 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
B5 D and K separately & K\_modern\_z & -0.701$^{***}$ & 0.139 & 14637 & -- \\
B5 Wald test of beta\_D + beta\_K = 0 (restriction implied by P) & D+K & -0.535$^{***}$ & 0.150 & 14637 & -- \\
Placebo: P with polyarchy in place of K (polyarchy not separately controlled) & P\_placebo\_z & 0.202$^{***}$ & 0.058 & 14754 & 2710.00 \\
Placebo comparison: P\_main with the same controls as the placebo & P\_modern\_z & 0.448$^{***}$ & 0.082 & 14676 & 2706.00 \\
Negative control: past events (t-5..t-1) $\sim$ P\_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE (no duration terms) & P\_modern\_z & 0.436$^{***}$ & 0.098 & 14608 & 2757.00 \\
Forward comparison for the negative control: future events $\sim$ P\_t + gdppc + polyarchy + FE & P\_modern\_z & 0.475$^{***}$ & 0.099 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
C4: conditional logit, country FE + decade FE & P\_modern\_z & 1.329$^{***}$ & 0.099 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\
C5: linear probability, country + year FE & P\_modern\_z\_dm & 0.109$^{***}$ & 0.032 & 14637 & 2692.00 \\