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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"key": "ref119",
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"abstract": "Abstract\n Several lines of evidence suggest that sizable groups of people sometimes behave cooperatively, even in the absence of external sanctions against noncooperative behavior. For example, in many food foraging groups, game is shared among all members of the group regardless of who makes the kill (e.g., Kaplan and Hill, 1984; Lee, 1979; Damas, 1971). In many other stateless societies, men risk their lives in warfare with other groups (e.g., Meggit, 1977). There is also evidence that a great deal of cooperation takes place in contemporary state-level societies without external sanctions. For example, people contribute to charity, give blood, and vote\u2014even though the effect of their own contributions on the welfare of the group is negligible. The groups benefiting are often very large and composed of very distantly related individuals. Perhaps the most dramatic examples of cooperation in contemporary societies are underground movements such as Poland\u2019s Solidarity in which people cooperate to achieve a common goal in opposition to all of the power of the modern state (see Olson, 1971, 1982, and Hardin, 1982, for further examples.) Because of the anecdotal nature of these data, it is possible to doubt any particular example. However, psychologists and sociologists have also shown that people cooperate under carefully controlled laboratory conditions, albeit for smaller stakes.",
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"abstract": "The Varieties of Democracy (V\u2013Dem) project relies on country experts who code a host of ordinal variables, providing subjective ratings of latent - that is, not directly observable - regime characteristics over time. Sets of around five experts rate each case (country-year observation), and each of these raters works independently. Since raters may diverge in their coding because of either differences of opinion or mistakes, we require systematic tools with which to model these patterns of disagreement. These tools allow us to aggregate ratings into point estimates of latent concepts and quantify our uncertainty around these point estimates. In this paper we describe item response theory models that can that account and adjust for differential item functioning (i.e. differences in how experts apply ordinal scales to cases) and variation in rater reliability (i.e. random error). We also discuss key challenges specific to applying item response theory to expert-coded cross-national panel data, explain the approaches that we use to address these challenges, highlight potential problems with our current framework, and describe long-term plans for improving our models and estimates. Finally, we provide an overview of the different forms in which we present model output.",
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"abstract": "We develop an omitted variable bias framework for sensitivity analysis of instrumental variable (IV) estimates that is immune to weak instruments, naturally handles multiple side-effects (violations of the exclusion restriction assumption) and confounders (violations of the ignorability of the instrument assumption), exploits expert knowledge to bound sensitivity parameters, and can be easily implemented with standard software. Conveniently, many pivotal conclusions regarding the sensitivity of the IV estimate (e.g. tests against the null hypothesis of zero causal effect) can be reached simply through separate sensitivity analyses of the effect of the instrument on the treatment (the first stage) and the effect of the instrument on the outcome (the reduced form). More specifically, we introduce sensitivity statistics for routine reporting, such as robustness values for IV estimates, describing the minimum strength that omitted variables need to have to change the conclusions of an IV study. Next we provide visual displays that fully characterize the sensitivity of IV point-estimates and confidence intervals to violations of the standard IV assumptions. Finally, we offer formal bounds on the worst possible bias under the assumption that the maximum explanatory power of omitted variables are no stronger than a multiple of the explanatory power of observed variables. We apply our methods in a running example that uses instrumental variables to estimate the returns to schooling.",
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