# STATUS — UQO WP36 (Used-car market dynamics, Auto-Ka)

Updated: 2026-11-01

## Current phase
Phase 4–5 (econometric program + AMLI) — Phases 0–3 complete; Phase 2 literature agent running.

## Completed
- [x] Phase 0: repository/infra inspection (Auto-Ka on M4M64b, SQLite 1.4 GB, 143 sources, crawl cycle ≈ 3.3 h).
- [x] Phase 0: owner-authorised read-only snapshot `data/raw/autoka-snapshot-20261101.db` (SHA-256 verified; `users` table dropped).
- [x] Phase 0: schema / coverage / null-rate / source-quality audit; feasibility matrix H1–H6; governance.
- [x] Environment: uv venv Python 3.12 (`requirements-lock.txt`), R 4.6.1, TeX Live 2026 available; no external model API used.
- [x] Phase 1: `research/questions.md`, `research/analysis_plan.md` (preregistered 2026-11-01).
- [ ] Phase 2: literature (agent running: `literature/references.bib`, `evidence_matrix.csv`, `novelty_memo.md`).
- [x] Phase 2b: external benchmarks inventory (`reports/external_benchmarks_inventory.md`): no weekly used-car benchmark exists for Aug–Oct 2026; composition benchmarks only.
- [x] Phase 3: pipeline 01–03 (ingest, clean, risk set) + 10 tests passing + synthetic fixture.
- [x] Phase 4 Model A (hedonic) done — H1 supported, H4 null.
- [ ] Phase 4 Models B/C (hazards), D (competition), F (prediction agent) running; descriptives agent running.
- [ ] Phase 5 AMLI.

## Next tasks
1. Phase 3 pipeline: ingest → Parquet; cleaning + exclusion log; sustained price paths; listing-day risk set; competitor sets; sample-construction tables.
2. Phase 4 models A–F; Phase 5 AMLI; Phase 6 robustness; Phase 7 figures/tables; Phase 8 paper.

## Blockers / known limits
- No transaction prices (asking prices only); listing exit ≠ sale (no verified sale outcomes available).
- Panel is 81 days (2026-08-12 → 2026-11-01): H6 external forecasting cannot be tested; H3 is association only.
- AutoTrader (capped 2 000 sliding window) and CarGurus (capped 500) are sampled portals → excluded from dynamic analyses.