\begin{tabular}{llllrrrr}
\toprule
Target & Split & Model & Log loss [95\% CI] & Brier & AUC & $n_{\text{test}}$ & Base rate \\
\midrule
Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.428 [0.417, 0.438] & 0.135 & 0.748 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\
 &  & LightGBM & 0.405 [0.395, 0.415] & 0.128 & 0.785 & 12\,953 & 0.193 \\
Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.476 [0.469, 0.483] & 0.150 & 0.580 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\
 &  & LightGBM & 0.494 [0.486, 0.502] & 0.153 & 0.582 & 44\,003 & 0.184 \\
Markdown $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.508 [0.500, 0.516] & 0.163 & 0.605 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\
 &  & LightGBM & 0.526 [0.516, 0.537] & 0.166 & 0.583 & 28\,947 & 0.198 \\
\addlinespace
Exit $\le$ 30 d & Chronological & Logistic & 0.609 [0.603, 0.616] & 0.212 & 0.705 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\
 &  & LightGBM & 0.585 [0.580, 0.591] & 0.204 & 0.727 & 12\,953 & 0.592 \\
Exit $\le$ 30 d & Dealer holdout & Logistic & 0.695 [0.694, 0.697] & 0.251 & 0.567 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\
 &  & LightGBM & 0.681 [0.678, 0.683] & 0.244 & 0.608 & 44\,003 & 0.593 \\
Exit $\le$ 30 d & Region LORO & Logistic & 0.690 [0.687, 0.693] & 0.248 & 0.584 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\
 &  & LightGBM & 0.689 [0.684, 0.692] & 0.247 & 0.607 & 28\,947 & 0.601 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}