\begin{table}[htbp]\centering
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Rolling-origin forecasts of next-week promotion state}\label{tab:fpromo}
\small
\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}
\toprule
Model & Origins & N & Brier & AUC \\
\midrule
base\_rate & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0568 & 0.5000 \\
hist\_rate & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0572 & 0.6778 \\
lightgbm & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0313 & 0.9359 \\
logit & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0439 & 0.8940 \\
persist & 4 & 215\,264 & 0.0510 & 0.7519 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}[flushleft]\footnotesize
\item Promotion = modal price $\le 0.9\times$ trailing 8-week mode. Brier: lower is better; AUC: higher is better. Base rate $\approx$ 5\%.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}