# PROGRESS.md — WP39 `wp39_uqo`

## Phase 0 — Discovery and feasibility (2026-11-02) — GATE PASSED
- Inspected the UQO Research workspace (`Recherche-UQO/`, 39 papers, harmonisation standard); no `wp39` existed; created
  `finance/invisible-balance-sheet/` from the template; git initialised on a dedicated repository (no other paper touched).
- Probed FinData: `/health` ok, 64 datasets, OpenAPI 3.1 (45 routes), bars schema v1, fundamentals (67 metrics, 5,451
  entities, 2012→2026), earnings events (Postgres), coverage endpoints, export throughput (≈ 1 s per symbol-decade;
  12-year cap per request). Created least-privilege key `wp39_uqo`.
- Verified external public sources: SEC `company_tickers.json` + `submissions` (CIK/SIC), Kenneth French daily factors.
- Verified 94 bibliography entries on Crossref; wrote `docs/NOVELTY_MEMO.md`, `literature/RELATED_WORK_MATRIX.csv`.
- Outputs: `DATA_AUDIT.md` (viability = YES with survivorship + PIT caveats), `configs/*.yaml`, `docs/API_INTEGRATION.md`,
  `docs/COMPUTE_BUDGET.md`, `docs/PIT_PROTOCOL.md`, `docs/RESEARCH_DESIGN.md` (frozen), `DECISIONS.md` D-001…D-010.
- Owner instructions received during the session: (1) the fundamentals API must be used — it is the accounting source;
  (2) minimise AI usage — no LLM features, no neural models (D-006).
- Blockers: none. Next safe step: Phase 1 gate memo, then code + tests (Phase 2).

## Phase 1 — Research design and novelty — GATE (self-approved under the autonomous mandate, D-010)
- `docs/RESEARCH_DESIGN.md` frozen 2026-11-02 14:40 ET; hypotheses H1–H5 with null/alternative, primary endpoint (H1,
  h = 20, log loss, binary adverse operating-income surprise), decision rules, splits, inference, power plan.
- Owner review pending; nothing in Phases 2–5 depends on test-period data until the Phase 3 gate.

## Phase 2 — Data acquisition and verification — IN PROGRESS