\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small
\caption{Final (held-out): CRPS relative to Random walk (trailing RMS)}
\label{tab:final_cmp_crps_heldout}
\begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth}
\begin{tabular}{lcccc}
\toprule
Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\
\midrule
Seasonal volatility & -2.47\% (-21.6) & -2.75\% (-24.6) & -2.79\% (-20.7) & -2.96\% (-16.0) \\
EWMA-$t$ & -3.36\% (-30.8) & -3.42\% (-28.7) & -3.17\% (-23.8) & -2.85\% (-15.5) \\
HAR-RV & -2.81\% (-30.2) & -3.75\% (-35.6) & -3.75\% (-28.9) & -3.88\% (-21.1) \\
GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & -3.07\% (-24.0) & -3.33\% (-21.9) & -2.99\% (-21.3) & -2.55\% (-12.6) \\
Ridge & -3.07\% (-25.3) & -3.77\% (-32.7) & -3.83\% (-27.5) & -3.99\% (-20.5) \\
Elastic net & -3.07\% (-25.3) & -3.77\% (-32.5) & -3.82\% (-27.4) & -4.00\% (-20.5) \\
LightGBM & -2.24\% (-16.1) & -3.56\% (-21.5) & -3.53\% (-21.1) & -3.67\% (-16.3) \\
MLP (1m) & -3.76\% (-40.0) & -3.74\% (-39.9) & -3.69\% (-32.5) & -3.67\% (-23.8) \\
TCN (1m) & -3.86\% (-37.0) & -3.76\% (-38.6) & -3.65\% (-32.2) & -3.57\% (-23.8) \\
MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & -3.95\% (-33.0) & -3.88\% (-38.1) & -3.81\% (-32.2) & -3.81\% (-23.3) \\
MRPT-S (1m only) & -3.94\% (-33.0) & -3.88\% (-38.0) & -3.83\% (-31.9) & -3.81\% (-23.1) \\
MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & -3.91\% (-33.1) & -3.84\% (-40.5) & -3.81\% (-33.0) & -3.81\% (-24.4) \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{adjustbox}
\begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Relative change in mean CRPS versus the reference (negative = better); Diebold--Mariano $t$-statistic with HAC variance in parentheses.\end{minipage}
\end{table}