\begin{table}[htbp]\centering\small \caption{Final (held-out instruments): mean WIS of the cumulative-return forecast by horizon (minutes)} \label{tab:final_wis_heldout} \begin{adjustbox}{max width=\textwidth} \begin{tabular}{lcccc} \toprule Model & $H=5$ & $H=15$ & $H=30$ & $H=60$ \\ \midrule Random walk (trailing RMS) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0024, 0.0027]} \\ Seasonal volatility & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ EWMA-$t$ & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ HAR-RV & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ GARCH(1,1)-$t$ & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0017, 0.0019]} & 0.0025 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0027]} \\ Ridge & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ Elastic net & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ LightGBM & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ MLP (1m) & 0.0008 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ TCN (1m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ MRPT-S (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ MRPT-S (1m only) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ MRPT-B (1m+5m+30m) & 0.0007 {\scriptsize[0.0007, 0.0008]} & 0.0013 {\scriptsize[0.0012, 0.0014]} & 0.0018 {\scriptsize[0.0016, 0.0019]} & 0.0024 {\scriptsize[0.0023, 0.0026]} \\ \bottomrule \end{tabular} \end{adjustbox} \begin{minipage}{0.95\textwidth}\scriptsize Cluster-bootstrap (trading-day) 95\% intervals in brackets.\end{minipage} \end{table}