# WP42 — The Autonomous White-Collar Worker

Measuring the economic frontier of Claude Code, computer-using agents and autonomous knowledge work. UQO Working Paper Series No. 42
(Department of Administrative Sciences, Université du Québec en Outaouais). Author: Simon-Pierre Boucher. Built 2026-11-02 →.

**Research question.** What share of economically valuable white-collar deliverables can an autonomous Claude Code worker complete to a
professionally acceptable standard, at what cost, with what reliability and supervision needs, and how much of it is explained by the
level of computer access (file-only → shell → macOS layer → browser/office/portal → self-repair)?

## Headline results (pilot, 150 runs, claude-opus-5-5, 2026-11-03)
Scenario-weighted acceptance (deterministic completion ∧ no critical violation ∧ blind quality ≥ 70): A0 0.00 · A1 0.87 · A2 0.90 · A3 0.90 · A4 0.83.
Shell premium A1−A0 = +0.87 [0.67, 1.00], p = 0.004. Preregistered primary contrast A3−A1 = +0.03 [0.00, 0.10], p = 1.0 (precise null, ceiling).
Cost per accepted deliverable 0.87–1.11 USD (Sonnet 5.5: 0.40 USD at 0.85; Fable 5.1: 3.30 USD at 0.85). Exploratory recovery experiment:
after an induced interruption at 120 s, one bounded recovery session raises acceptance from 0.05 to 0.85 (20/20 self-check passes).
Human arms H0/H1 designed, not executed. Total API spend 261.89 USD. Monograph: `release/wp42_uqo.pdf` (189 pp.); journal version: `release/wp42_uqo_journal_version.pdf` (41 pp.).

## Layout
| Path | Content |
|---|---|
| `CLAUDE.md` | the research mandate (verbatim) |
| `RESEARCH_PLAN.md`, `PROJECT_STATUS.md` | operational design, phase status |
| `protocol/` | preregistration, amendments, ethics (human arms, not executed), power analysis |
| `literature/` | 110 verified references (`references.bib`), structured review, verification log |
| `benchmark/` | authoring spec, taxonomy, public scenario bundles (`scenarios/<TASK_ID>/`), shared evaluator helpers, public self-check |
| `src/wp42/` | controller: store, launcher, arms, bundle, portal, scheduler, evaluate, judge, metrics, export, dashboard, watchdog, CLI |
| `data/raw/` | SQLite store + immutable raw streams per run (git-ignored) · `data/validated/` Parquet/CSV datasets |
| `analysis/` | econometrics, robustness, figures, tables (all generated by scripts) |
| `manuscript/` | LaTeX monograph · `journal_version/` short version |
| `dashboard/` | private monitoring page (`python -m wp42.dashboard --serve 8642`) |
| `tests/` | unit tests (`.venv/bin/python -m pytest -q tests`) |

Hidden oracles (ground truth, deterministic evaluators, rubrics, validation reports) live **outside** the repository in `~/wp42-oracles/`
and are never copied to executor nodes. The API key lives in `~/Desktop/Cluster/secrets/wp42/.env` (controller) and `<node>:~/wp42/.env`.

## Running the laboratory
```bash
cd wp42 && export PYTHONPATH=src
.venv/bin/python -m wp42.cli sync-tools                              # portal package → nodes
.venv/bin/python -m wp42.cli assign --tasks ACC-01 FIN-01 ... --arms A0 A1 A2 A3 A4 --reps 2 --seed 4242 --stage pilot
.venv/bin/python -m wp42.cli run --parallel 12                       # executes, collects, evaluates, judges (envelope enforced)
.venv/bin/python -m wp42.cli status | ledger | export --tag pilot
.venv/bin/python -m wp42.cli kill-all                                # emergency shutdown
.venv/bin/python -m wp42.dashboard --serve 8642
```
Workers run as `claude --bare -p` on M3U96a/M3U96b/M4M64a/M4M64b (Claude Code 2.1.314) in `~/wp42/runs/<run_id>/`, with the arm's tool
flags, 4 USD / 1,800 s / 150-turn caps, no Agent tool and a depth guard. See `docs/PHASE_0_DISCOVERY.md` for the measured environment.