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   "estimand": "The wedge (bias) between empirically observed responses to exogenous shocks and theory-implied causal effects defined as comparative statics, in a dynamic linear-quadratic stock-accumulation model.",
   "strategy": "The model serves as a laboratory. Shocks are exogenous Markov chain transitions, so endogeneity is absent by construction. Shock responses are derived analytically and compared with known comparative statics, yielding bias, correction and extrapolation formulas. A numerical tax example uses an estimated tax-rate Markov chain.",
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    "Linear profits/benefit flows and linear-quadratic stock accumulation (adjustment) costs",
    "Rational expectations over a known shock-generating (Markov) process",
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    "For equality results: martingale benefit flow, or infinitesimal shock probabilities"
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    "Sensitivity to technology assumptions (alternative technologies section)",
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   "convention_notes": "Tables report model-implied shock responses, transition probabilities and response-to-causal-effect ratios. Notes state the assumed parameters (shock probabilities, risk-free rate, depreciation rate) and use panels for alternative state-space sizes. No inferential statistics are reported.",
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    "claim": "With binary shocks, attenuation bias exceeds half the causal effect once the shock probability is above about 5%.",
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   {
    "claim": "Under permanent shocks, responses can overshoot or carry the wrong sign, depending on realized versus expected changes.",
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    "evidence_ref": "Section II, Proposition 7"
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   {
    "claim": "Martingale profitability is sufficient for shock responses to equal causal effects.",
    "evidence_type": "equation_or_proof",
    "evidence_ref": "Section III; Appendix proofs"
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   {
    "claim": "With an estimated tax-rate process, shock responses are roughly half the theory-implied causal effects.",
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    "evidence_ref": "Tables III-IV"
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   {
    "claim": "Shock responses vary with the shock-generating process, e.g., decreasing versus mean-reverting tax rates.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
    "evidence_ref": "Tables I-II, Figure 1"
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   {
    "claim": "Shock-based identification designs have grown sharply in corporate finance and governance research.",
    "evidence_type": "prior_literature",
    "evidence_ref": "Bowen, Fresard, and Taillard (2016); Atanasov and Black (2016)"
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  "structural_summary": "The introduction opens with authoritative quotations equating comparative statics with causal effects. It then critiques the reduced-form toolkit for ignoring dynamic uncertainty. Next it frames an analytical model as a laboratory in which endogeneity is absent, and previews striking bias results (wrong signs, overshooting, attenuation above 50%) with an applied tax illustration and welfare implications. A constructive contribution follows: correction formulas, extrapolation methods and sufficient identifying conditions. The introduction closes with extended literature positioning against Lucas, tax-investment papers and Keane-Wolpin. The body develops the model, then the shock-response propositions, identifying assumptions, external validity/extrapolation, a calibrated tax example and alternative technologies. The conclusion restates the theory-evidence gap and the constructive prescription; proofs are in the appendix.",
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