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    "House prices, aggregate income and interest rates are exogenous (partial equilibrium)",
    "LTV and LTI limits follow conforming lending standards",
    "Households have no ex ante heterogeneity",
    "Idiosyncratic labor income risk is countercyclical"
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    "Interest-rate-driven refinancing as an alternative explanation for countercyclical cash-outs",
    "Competing explanations: self-control problems, optimistic expectations, lender moral hazard",
    "Lending standards looser than the baseline (model treated as a lower bound; constraints relaxed)"
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    "claim": "Cash-out refinancing has a strongly countercyclical component not explained by interest rate movements.",
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    "claim": "The estimated model matches targeted household balance-sheet and consumption moments.",
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    "claim": "Income risk and collateral vs debt-service constraints materially change model consumption volatility and homeownership.",
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    "claim": "High-leverage households experience larger consumption declines after the crash, in line with PSID estimates.",
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    "claim": "The model reproduces the cross-sectional refinancing and balance-sheet patterns seen in SCF and PSID data.",
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    "claim": "The model replicates the Mian and Sufi (2011) debt growth patterns across regions.",
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    "evidence_ref": "Figure 9"
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