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   "estimand": "Effect of faster government payment (Quickpay) on employment growth of treated small-business contractors, and the net and crowding-out effects on local labor markets",
   "strategy": "Difference-in-differences in first differences, comparing establishments, county-by-sector cells and commuting zones by their exposure to accelerated federal contracts before and after the 2011 reform; dynamics and falsification tests; heterogeneity by labor market tightness",
   "key_assumptions": [
    "Parallel trends between treated and nontreated establishments or areas absent the reform",
    "Treatment defined by eligible government contracts in the two pre-reform years is not correlated with other shocks",
    "Reform timing is exogenous to firm-level employment prospects"
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   "threats_addressed": [
    "Pre-existing trends, addressed with dynamics tests",
    "Spurious effects, addressed with falsification tests",
    "Equilibrium spillovers to nontreated firms, addressed with aggregation to the commuting-zone level"
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  "robustness": {
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    "claim": "Quickpay increased employment growth at treated establishments",
    "evidence_type": "table",
    "evidence_ref": "Table II, Table III"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Placebo/falsification tests do not show spurious effects",
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    "evidence_ref": "Table IV"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Implied cost of external finance is about 40%",
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   },
   {
    "claim": "Aggregate employment rises only in slack labor markets; crowding out occurs in tight ones",
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    "evidence_ref": "Table VII, Table X"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Workers flow from low- to high-treatment sectors",
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    "evidence_ref": "Table XI"
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    "claim": "Payment terms for small contractors fell after the reform",
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  "structural_summary": "The paper motivates the question with post-crisis financing constraints and the government's role as a customer. It sketches a theory of working-capital financing of labor and describes the reform. It then estimates establishment-level difference-in-differences effects, with dynamics and falsification tests. Model-based magnitudes translate the employment response into implied financing frictions. The analysis then moves to county-by-sector and commuting-zone aggregation to reveal crowding out that depends on labor market tightness. The conclusion restates the findings and draws policy implications.",
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   "policy reform",
   "difference-in-differences",
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