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   "estimand": "Effect of executives' personal lending relationships on lender choice and loan terms (spreads, amounts), and downstream effects on investment and employment during downturns",
   "strategy": "Executive deaths and quasi-exogenous retirements at other firms instrument for own-firm executive turnover, which shocks the firm's set of personal bank connections. Within-firm comparison across lenders, before and after turnover, using LPM/OLS/IV regressions.",
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    "Exclusion restriction: deaths and retirements at other firms do not directly affect a firm's loan terms across connected versus unconnected lenders",
    "Relevance: a geographically constrained executive market with industry-specific expertise links outside deaths to own-firm turnover",
    "Relationship-intensity measures capture the ex ante expected number of transactions between borrower and lender"
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    "claim": "Outside executive deaths and retirements predict own-firm executive turnover",
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    "claim": "After turnover, firms favor lenders tied to new executives and get lower spreads and larger loans, with no pre-turnover effect",
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    "claim": "Personal relationship intensity has a larger, more precise effect on lender choice than institutional intensity",
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   {
    "claim": "Personal relationship effects on loan terms are stronger in NBER recessions and the 2008-09 crisis",
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   {
    "claim": "Firms with intense personal relationships invest more and cut fewer jobs in downturns",
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   {
    "claim": "Aggregate crisis investment would be at least $32.6bn lower without intense personal relationships",
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    "evidence_ref": "Table IX"
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