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   "estimand": "Effect of foreign (U.S., U.K., Eurozone) monetary policy rate shocks and QE on credit supply of the corresponding foreign banks in Mexico, on borrower risk-taking, and on firm-level real outcomes",
   "strategy": "Loan-level supervisory credit register panel with borrower or borrower×month fixed effects (Khwaja–Mian style), interacting foreign policy shocks with bank nationality. Foreign policy is treated as exogenous to Mexico. Firm×bank and state×industry×month fixed effects are used for single-bank borrowers. Firm-level regressions capture real effects and credit substitution; bank-level regressions capture liabilities and risk.",
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    "Borrower×time fixed effects absorb credit demand and firm fundamentals",
    "Taylor-rule residuals proxy for policy rate shocks",
    "Central bank balance sheet to GDP proxies for QE"
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   "threats_addressed": [
    "Credit demand confounding",
    "Foreign banks lending to different types of firms",
    "Global shocks (period fixed effects)",
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    "claim": "Foreign policy rate cuts raise credit supply mainly via banks of the same nationality in Mexico, e.g., about 2.1% higher volume per one-SD cut.",
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    "claim": "The Mexican policy rate affects lending by all banks regardless of nationality, with smaller magnitude.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
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   {
    "claim": "Foreign monetary softening produces firm-level real effects on assets, investment, employment and survival, net of credit substitution.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
    "evidence_ref": "Table III"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Credit expansion and ex post defaults rise for borrowers with high ex ante loan rates, consistent with reach-for-yield.",
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    "evidence_ref": "Table IV"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Under foreign softening, foreign subsidiaries increase foreign and short-term liabilities, expand balance sheets and experience more defaults.",
    "evidence_type": "none_stated",
    "evidence_ref": "bank-level results; table not visible in excerpts"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Strong credit growth financed by foreign liabilities predicts financial crises.",
    "evidence_type": "prior_literature",
    "evidence_ref": "Jorda, Schularick, and Taylor (2011); Gourinchas and Obstfeld (2012)"
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  ],
  "structural_summary": "Opens with macro-financial and policy motivation, citing policymakers' concerns about spillovers. Describes identification via loan-level Mexican register data with fixed effects and exogenous foreign policy shocks. Previews loan-level, risk-taking, bank-level and real-effect results with magnitudes. Sketches a reach-for-yield mechanism, states the identification contribution against the international and risk-taking literatures, and gives a roadmap. A single empirical strategy section is followed by a results section organized by loan, firm, and risk-taking outcomes. The conclusion restates results and offers policy coordination implications and future research.",
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   "Khwaja-Mian fixed effects",
   "international spillovers",
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   "QE"
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