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  "subfield": "entrepreneurial_finance_private_equity",
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   "estimand": "Association between the aggregate equity risk premium (predicted excess market return) and buyout activity, at both aggregate and firm level, plus how firm characteristics shift that sensitivity.",
   "strategy": "Time-series regressions of quarterly buyout activity on estimated risk premium and credit factors with Newey-West SEs; firm panel deal-likelihood regressions with firm or time fixed effects; high-low quartile interaction tests that check model-implied cross-sectional predictions.",
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    "Credit-factor controls adequately span the competing credit-market explanations",
    "Cross-sectional proxies (governance, competition, cash flow, industry M&A/IPO activity) capture potential gains and illiquidity"
   ],
   "threats_addressed": [
    "Credit market conditions as an alternative driver",
    "Debt-equity mispricing explanation",
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    "Seasonality",
    "Persistence of regressors",
    "Time-varying firm risk correlated with discount rates, handled with time fixed effects"
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   "convention_notes": "Notes give the sample period (1982Q4-2011Q4, 117 quarters), dependent-variable definitions (deals scaled by public firms in bps, 2010 dollars) and risk-premium estimator definitions (OLS predictors vs. VAR). Panels separate volume- and value-based measures. Text states Newey-West SEs for time-series tables and two-way firm-quarter clustering for panel tables.",
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    "claim": "A high aggregate risk premium is a strong negative predictor of buyout volume and explains more variation than credit spreads.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
    "evidence_ref": "Table II"
   },
   {
    "claim": "The risk premium alone explains over 30% of buyout activity variation, versus about 10% for credit factors.",
    "evidence_type": "figure",
    "evidence_ref": "Figure 1; Table II"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Expected market growth is positively related to buyout activity in a Campbell-Shiller decomposition.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
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   },
   {
    "claim": "Firms with high beta or high idiosyncratic volatility are less likely buyout targets.",
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   },
   {
    "claim": "Buyout targets' beta shifts lower in high-risk-premium periods while idiosyncratic risk does not change.",
    "evidence_type": "figure",
    "evidence_ref": "Figure 3; Table VIII"
   },
   {
    "claim": "Poorly governed, high-cash-flow and less liquid-industry firms show greater sensitivity of buyout activity to the risk premium.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
    "evidence_ref": "Table IX"
   },
   {
    "claim": "The buyout decision trades off NPV of performance gains against the cost of GP risk-bearing, both worsening with the risk premium.",
    "evidence_type": "equation_or_proof",
    "evidence_ref": "Section II; Appendix A-B"
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   {
    "claim": "M&A and IPO activity also co-move with the risk premium broadly as the model predicts.",
    "evidence_type": "table",
    "evidence_ref": "Table X"
   }
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  "structural_summary": "The abstract opens with a direct thesis that buyout booms respond to declines in the risk premium. The introduction contrasts this thesis with credit-centric literature, previews aggregate magnitudes, and sketches a two-channel mechanism (performance NPV and illiquidity/incentive cost). It then previews cross-sectional tests built to separate the thesis from a debt-capacity story, states the contribution and gives a roadmap. The body runs: aggregate time-series evidence, then a simple two-period model with predictions, then firm-panel tests of composition, then an extension to M&A and IPOs. The conclusion restates the findings, acknowledges simplifications about private equity fund heterogeneity, and proposes broader research.",
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   "illiquidity channel"
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