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   "estimand": "Change in manager value added (excess return over benchmark times AUM) following a firm-initiated capital reallocation (promotion/demotion), bounded from below",
   "strategy": "Panel regressions of manager value added on firm capital reallocation dummies, with counterfactual adjustments (e.g., excluding poorly performing funds, filling in zeros for fired managers) to produce a lower bound; external-hire comparisons and probit predictability tests support the information channel",
   "key_assumptions": [
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    "Counterfactual adjustments yield a conservative lower bound",
    "Null hypothesis that reallocation decisions add no value is the appropriate test"
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    "Predictability of reallocations from public information",
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    "claim": "Firm reallocation of capital to managers raises manager value added by at least about $474K per month",
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   {
    "claim": "Investors reward firms after reallocation decisions with additional capital",
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   {
    "claim": "External hires with AUM changes do not produce detectable value-added changes",
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   {
    "claim": "Public information such as past performance has weak power to predict firm reallocation decisions",
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    "claim": "Under decreasing returns to scale, value added rather than gross alpha measures skill",
    "evidence_type": "figure",
    "evidence_ref": "Figure 1; Section II model"
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   {
    "claim": "Firm-driven AUM changes would take investors years to replicate through flows",
    "evidence_type": "figure",
    "evidence_ref": "Figure 6"
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  "structural_summary": "The paper opens with an assertive contribution statement and the headline magnitude. It then sketches an information-asymmetry mechanism with a numbered list of supporting findings, adds a paragraph acknowledging a behavioral alternative it cannot rule out, and closes the introduction with a roadmap. A short theory section frames a Coasian benchmark against asymmetric information. Data definitions argue for value added over gross alpha. The main results test a null of no value added and bound the firm's contribution from below under counterfactuals. Follow-up sections show investor responses and the information source of firm skill, and a section reports gross alpha results at referees' request. The conclusion ties the findings to the theory of the firm and limits generalization to other industries.",
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  "notes": "No statistical significance conventions or standard error descriptions are visible in the excerpts. Section VIII (gross alpha) is treated as robustness. The causal reading relies on the bounding approach rather than a quasi-experiment."
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