====================================================================== EXTENDED ROBUSTNESS ANALYSES ====================================================================== --- A. WINSORIZATION SENSITIVITY (5-day returns) --- None : R²=0.0335, t_kurt= 13.76, t_pc= -3.59, sig=8/10 0.5% : R²=0.0510, t_kurt= 36.51, t_pc=-21.31, sig=10/10 1% (baseline) : R²=0.0529, t_kurt= 40.07, t_pc=-21.48, sig=9/10 2.5% : R²=0.0577, t_kurt= 43.66, t_pc=-21.32, sig=9/10 5% : R²=0.0619, t_kurt= 45.73, t_pc=-20.86, sig=9/10 --- B. NEWEY-WEST LAG SENSITIVITY --- 1-Day | NW( 5): 4/10 significant at 5% 1-Day | NW(10): 4/10 significant at 5% 1-Day | NW(22): 4/10 significant at 5% 5-Day | NW( 5): 9/10 significant at 5% 5-Day | NW(10): 9/10 significant at 5% 5-Day | NW(22): 9/10 significant at 5% --- C. RANK-BASED INFORMATION COEFFICIENTS (stocks) --- 1-Day | iv_atm_30d : IC=+0.0140, t= 1.84, %>0= 52.2 1-Day | iv_term_slope : IC=-0.0013, t= -0.25, %>0= 49.2 1-Day | iv_skew_25d : IC=+0.0200, t= 3.51, %>0= 53.1 1-Day | implied_skewness : IC=-0.0018, t= -0.32, %>0= 50.3 1-Day | implied_kurtosis_proxy : IC=-0.0083, t= -1.44, %>0= 49.0 1-Day | pc_volume_ratio : IC=+0.0133, t= 3.10, %>0= 54.2 1-Day | pc_oi_ratio : IC=+0.0071, t= 1.56, %>0= 51.0 1-Day | net_gamma_exposure : IC=-0.0107, t= -2.17, %>0= 48.1 1-Day | rv_daily : IC=-0.0004, t= -0.06, %>0= 50.0 1-Day | rv_w : IC=+0.0019, t= 0.28, %>0= 50.1 5-Day | iv_atm_30d : IC=+0.0085, t= 1.09, %>0= 53.0 5-Day | iv_term_slope : IC=+0.0328, t= 6.30, %>0= 54.6 5-Day | iv_skew_25d : IC=-0.0558, t= -9.66, %>0= 41.9 5-Day | implied_skewness : IC=-0.0188, t= -3.30, %>0= 47.4 5-Day | implied_kurtosis_proxy : IC=+0.0978, t= 16.77, %>0= 64.3 5-Day | pc_volume_ratio : IC=-0.0591, t= -13.81, %>0= 37.2 5-Day | pc_oi_ratio : IC=+0.0170, t= 3.63, %>0= 52.4 5-Day | net_gamma_exposure : IC=+0.1702, t= 33.99, %>0= 77.8 5-Day | rv_daily : IC=+0.0161, t= 2.41, %>0= 52.7 5-Day | rv_w : IC=+0.0120, t= 1.73, %>0= 51.2 --- D. DECILE SORTS (D10 - D1, 5-day returns) --- Implied Kurtosis | Quintile (baseline) : ann.ret= 44.04%, Sharpe= 2.328, t= 19.84 Implied Kurtosis | Decile : ann.ret= 52.08%, Sharpe= 2.185, t= 18.56 Put-Call Volume Ratio | Quintile (baseline) : ann.ret= -30.29%, Sharpe=-2.478, t= -21.80 Put-Call Volume Ratio | Decile : ann.ret= -33.37%, Sharpe=-2.099, t= -18.47 Volatility Skew (25d) | Quintile (baseline) : ann.ret= -37.53%, Sharpe=-1.868, t= -15.92 Volatility Skew (25d) | Decile : ann.ret= -52.51%, Sharpe=-1.896, t= -16.11 --- E. LEAVE-ONE-YEAR-OUT PANEL R² --- excl. 2010: 5D-ret R²=0.0537, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4852 excl. 2011: 5D-ret R²=0.0535, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4810 excl. 2012: 5D-ret R²=0.0537, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4831 excl. 2013: 5D-ret R²=0.0538, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4800 excl. 2014: 5D-ret R²=0.0529, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4833 excl. 2015: 5D-ret R²=0.0514, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4922 excl. 2016: 5D-ret R²=0.0520, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4844 excl. 2017: 5D-ret R²=0.0547, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4839 excl. 2018: 5D-ret R²=0.0469, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4861 excl. 2019: 5D-ret R²=0.0540, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4858 excl. 2020: 5D-ret R²=0.0505, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4142 excl. 2021: 5D-ret R²=0.0557, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4817 excl. 2022: 5D-ret R²=0.0500, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4786 excl. 2023: 5D-ret R²=0.0532, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4883 excl. 2024: 5D-ret R²=0.0572, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4895 excl. 2025: 5D-ret R²=0.0573, HAR+IV RV R²=0.4900 --- F. PLACEBO TEST (features permuted within ticker) --- Actual R²: 0.0529 (N=119,081) Placebo R² over 10 draws: mean=0.000804, max=0.000982 EXTENDED ROBUSTNESS COMPLETE.